Sunday 12 May 2013

Morning Bells (13 May 13)



Good Morning Friends.

Don’t read success stories, you will get only messages, instead failure stories, you will get some ideas to get success - MG

The Sensex and Nifty managed to clock some gains in the special trading session held between 11.15 am and 12.45 pm on Saturday. This special live session held to upgrade capacity of the NSE’s hardware and software systems for the capital market segment, futures and options segment and the Securities Lending and Borrowing Scheme. The BSE held the special session from its disaster recovery site.  

Gainers –
Dr. Reddy's, Sun Pharma, Sterlite, Cipla and Coal India were among the major gainers.

Losers -
NTPC, Infosys, TCS, GAIL and BHEL were among major losers.

Sectoral –
Healthcare, consumer durables, metals and PSU counters saw buying interest. IT and Power stocks weakened in the short trading session.

Domestic Front –
The Indian debt and foreign exchange market will be keenly awaiting wholesale and consumer price-based inflation data due early next week for near-term direction.

The consumer price data is due on Monday, while the wholesale price data is due on Tuesday.
WPI is expected to have risen 5.5 percent on year in April, a Reuters poll shows, marking the slowest pace since November 2009. Core WPI is expected to have risen 3.5 percent.
Traders will also await to see if the government decides to sell a new 10-year bond next week, which could send yields on the current benchmark up by 5-10 bps next week, according to traders.

Traders also expect continued buying of Indian debt and stocks by foreigners which is expected to boost the rupee.

USD/INR is seen holding in a broad 54 to 55 range next week with the dollar's moves versus global currencies also key for direction.

FUEL PRICE HIKE –
Oil companies has raised diesel prices hiked by 90 paise a litre  with effect from midnight.

This is the fourth increase in rates this year. 

According to reports, the increase comes to Rs 1.02 per litre in Delhi where the fuel will now cost Rs 49.69 a litre compared to Rs 48.67 previously.

In Mumbai, diesel will cost Rs 1.12 more at Rs 56.04 a litre, while in Kolkata it will cost Rs 53.97 per litre from tomorrow as compared to Rs 52.91 at present, says report.

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
The Indian debt and foreign exchange market will be keenly awaiting wholesale and consumer price-based inflation data due early next week for near-term direction.

The consumer price data is due on Monday, while the wholesale price data is due on Tuesday.

KEY DATA TO WATCH THIS WEEK -

Mon: Consumer price inflation
Tues: Wholesale price inflation
Wed: Money supply data
Fri: Bank credit and forex exchange reserves data

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.95% and ended at 16.60 against previous close of 16.76.

FNO PCR was 1.09 against previous close XXX.

Indian Rupee – Rupee lost 55 paisa and was trading at 54.8 against its previous close of 54.25.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1633.70 up 7.03 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALENDER –
Probably this week following results are expected –

Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Reliance Power, Rashtriya Chemical, Tata Coffee, Tata Tele, Dr Reddy’s lab, Reliance Infra, United Bank, Adani Ports and J&K Bank.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
Nifty may see some cautious approach this week and key reason are – we have important data announcement this week, secondly Nifty is reached in the range of 6100-6130 which seems crucial, though market doesn’t seems falling below 6025 and can hold this levels and on upside if this phenomena continues then expiry seems around 6130-40 level.

Opening – Seems flat or say a bit on negative note.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM
A tough time is ahead for all diesel run 4 wheel manufacturer. Automobile companies are all material sensitive companies. The raw material to sales price is almost 70 percent in automobile companies. I should say on a longer term, the catching up of petrol six months back, the diesel prices were about 55-60 percent of petrol prices.

So here investors can switch to Maruti slowly-slowly. Lets see it, petrol prices falling and diesel prices going up. Maruti as you know is king in the petrol driven cars. So all this is working in Maruti’s favour.

So as informed TM currently in No trade zone, now watch whether its going to break 312 or going back to below 301.

DLF –
DLF Ltd has announced that the Equity Issuance Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company in its meeting held on May 11, 2013 has finalised May 14, 2013 as the Issue opening and closing date. Further, the Floor Price has been finalised at Rs. 222/- per equity share with Price band of Rs. 222/- to Rs. 233/- per Equity Share.

Lupin
North America is the largest pharmaceutical market for the drug firms of the world. And the importance of this market has been highlighted by the quarterly numbers posted by Indian pharmaceutical giants.

For Lupin, revenues from the US market grew a staggering 33 percent  which pushed overall net sales up 35 percent, and led to profits more-than-doubling to Rs 408 crore. And though its Indian business grew 24 percent in FY13, the big boost over the year still came from the US where a 47-percent growth in revenue was driven by the launch of 10 new products.

The stock surged to a 52-week high of over Rs 735 per share especially after the company said the performance was sustainable. Kamal Sharma, MD, Lupin says, "Cumulatively, costs came down by about 3 percent. I hope we will be able to maintain this level and improve further. In this particular quarter and year, our EBITDA margin, which was around 21 percent last year, is over 24 percent this year. The 6-percent improvement on our base of Rs 9,600-crore has resulted in a substantial boost in performance."

Lupin to fall a bit in next 2-3 days say around 785+ levels to again below 765 level then again it can take a pick up.

IndusInd Bank-
On charts it seems to reached in Over Bought zone but it seems can move a bit up more from here a day or two and then probably stock will be corrected. 14 & 15 May is important for this stock. It has strong rally from 390 to 500 in few sessions, so when it comes to correction stock may see around 460-470 level i.e. not a big correction and from these levels one can make long position.

Bank of Baroda (Result today 13 May) -
Net profit is likely to drop 31 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,051 crore. Net interest income (NII) or the difference between interest earned and paid out, however may rise by 6 percent to Rs 2,968 crore, according to a poll estimate by CNBC-TV18.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TV18 – Bought @28.5 TG 34+ SL 25.5 (Qty 1K)

DLF 250CE – Bought @4.25 TG 7.5+ SL 2.5 (Qty 1 Lot)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 56,050)
May 2013 - +3000

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 1,10,950)
May 2013 - +6000

Today’s MG Mantra
Nifty spot major resistance 6100, 6130, major support 6030, 5990

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Have a Profitable day – MG
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