Morning Bells (16 May 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Opportunities are like an ICE, if you think more about it, it melts – I learned in past 3-4 days.

Boom!! Nobody would have even think in dreams about this. Its market and man who will catch news first can grab a jackpot.

Well, it was an incredible rally in a really long time. Led by rate sensitives like banking, realty and autos, the Nifty hit a fresh 52-week high of 6,157.10.

Dealers attribute today’s strong up move to heavy buying by exchange-traded funds. Duvvuri Subbarao, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, added to the cheer. He said the apex bank would take note of falling inflation before formulating its monetary policy on June 17.

Also a major reason behind rally was - RBI’s forensic study into Cobrapost’s money-laundering allegations has found India’s three largest private lenders — ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank—not guilty of money laundering but “there could be instances of tax evasion.”

There are also rumours that South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex may be upgraded to developed from developing markets. This will result in huge fresh fund allocation to emerging markets like India.

Gainers –

Ranbaxy Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Bank of Baroda, Power Grid, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, GAIL (India), Punjab National Bank, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and HDFC were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.

Losers -

There’s surprise also - Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and Cairn India were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.

Sectoral –

Banking stocks were the star performers in trade with index heavyweights like SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank leading from the front. The Bank Nifty has made a new all-time high, surging about 4% to close at 13,083.

So, broad-based was the rally that no single sectoral index ended in the red. It was heartening to see mid- and small-cap stocks participating after a long time.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

France slides into recession –

Germany's economy crept back into growth at the start of the year but not by enough to stop the euro zone from contracting for a sixth straight quarter, and  France slid into recession.

Falling output across the bloc meant the 17-nation economy is in its longest recession since records began in 1995.

It shrank 0.2 percent in the January to March period, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday, worse than the 0.1 percent contraction forecast by a Reuters poll.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As the wholesale index, retail inflation and trade deficit numbers are out, the market will now eye January-March Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the next big trigger. 

KEY DATA TO WATCH THIS WEEK -

Mon: Consumer price inflation

Tues: Wholesale price inflation

Wed: Money supply data

Fri: Bank credit and forex exchange reserves data

31 May - Fourth quarter gross domestic profit (GDP) numbers

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 5.99% and ended at 18.13 against previous close of 17.17.

FNO PCR was 0.90 against previous close 0.97.

Indian Rupee – Not appreciated much instead of wonderful rally, Rupee gained 3 paisa and was trading at 54.78 against its previous close of 54.81.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1652.71 up 2.37 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALENDER –

Probably this week following results are expected –

Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Reliance Power, Rashtriya Chemical, Tata Coffee, Tata Tele, Dr Reddy’s lab, Reliance Infra, United Bank, Adani Ports and J&K Bank.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now immediate range says – 5950 would be a trend changer on down side and then Nifty can head towards 5820 levels while for further upside seesm capped for 6190. There are also view of all time high too. Well Nifty closed above 6115 and as discussed during the day 6130-6140 will act as midway range.

Opening – Seems flat and some profit booking as well as cool off can be seen after such a wonderful rally.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

TM rebound to its previous levels and reached again in its no trade zone 306-312, it tried a lot to break 312 but failed. So coming few sessions seems challenging for TM.

DLF –

DLF surged around 5% as its offer subscribe 1.3%

Tata Communication -

Tata Communications Ltd said on Wednesday it will delist from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and terminate its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) programme.

"Our decision to delist, deregister and terminate our ADR program was the result of several factors, including the fact that our ADR program had not developed the trading volumes we had initially hoped when we listed," chief executive Vinod Kumar said in a statement.

Kumar said a rule set by the Indian market regulator for listed companies to have a minimum 25 percent public shareholding , excluding ADRs, was also a "crucial factor" in the decision.

Money-losing Tata Communications, one of the world's biggest undersea cable network operators, is a former Indian state monopoly, now controlled by the salt-to-software Tata conglomerate.

RBI to  kickstart sale of inflation –indexed bond on June 4 -

The Reserve Bank of India will sell Rs 10-20 billion of inflation-indexed bonds on June 4, kickstarting monthly sales of a new type of debt the country is introducing this year.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 56,050)

May 2013 - +3000 + 1500 TV18 profit – 1750 DLF loss = +2750

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 1,10,950)

May 2013 - +6000 + 4500 (profit in Yes Bank) + 750 (profit in DLF) = +11,250

Today’s MG Mantra –

Fundamentally nothing has changed except people started talking about another rate cut. So be carefull and watch 5990 as SL for short term trend.

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Have a Profitable day – MG