Monday 10 September 2012

Morning Bells (11 Sept 2012)



Good Morning Friends,

As told y’day that due to microeconomic condition and growing concerns about Govt's inability to push reform investor will choose to book profit at higher levels, mkt was in consolidation mode.

Some of would have also remember my prediction about EU one and half month back when I had told you regarding EU worry was “I clearly see that EU dragon is on his way and how much time it will take I don’t know” once again hammering my mind because EU debt keeps going higher and higher, once again Dragi’s promise has given some breathing space time being but not solution. I am mentioning it here only because I want you to keep it remembers. And why telling you right now because now its time to play cautious, don’t set too high TGs for your longs and book part profit time to time else one good day will be well enough to swallow your all earnings.

Once again, the week is full of thrill and volatility on both domestic as well as on global (EU) front. Today we have IIP No. announcement, keep eye on it.

Also The German constitutional court’s verdict on the legitimacy of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will be keenly watched. Market can lose its cheers ECB’s bond-buying plan if the German court delivers an unfavourable verdict.

US Fed QE3 will also be eyed this week.

MARKET OUTLOOK -
Market will remain under pressure (at least first half) as today we can have 2 shock wave which are IIP Nos and The German constitutional court’s verdict on ECB result. Macroeconomic concerns & inability of policy reform are also there and may prompt investors to book profits at higher levels and that’s FII booked profit in index future on their long positions Y’day and can continue with profit booking ahead of uncertainty. In cash segment FIIs bought 6.92bn in cash segment while DIIs sold 3.18bn as per provisional figures released by the NSE.

So right now there is nothing much to say as its action packed week and market can take any direction according to various events lined up this week.

So cautious approach is suggested and book part profit on rallies to safe your investment.

NIFTY
Now data shows Nifty range 5280-5400-5450 indicating upside seems capped.  If Nifty continue its upward journey it will face resistance at 5386 - 5400 - 5450 while on downside if Nifty goes below 5335 then selling pressure can drag Nifty to 5335-5300 - 5280.

Trend remains buy on dips till 5335 is safe on closing basis.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Banks – Banks remain in news this week ahead of RBI policy review, Govt.’s action and festive session.

TM- As suggested Y’day TM crossed 246 and attempted to 250 and didn’t success, made high 248.9. It was expected that TM won’t success in very first attempt. Now TM will face resistance on 252 & 255 while intraday support is 244 and longs SL is 239. So it’s a watch, in 250-255 range (if it goes to that range) it will give thought for taking some PUT options, of course after having look of market sentiment. Y’day fresh short created and OI decreased showing profit booking in index future.

OPEN CALLS
(Now we need to close our open positions slowly-slowly. Liquidity lover can also close their positions)

Apollo Tyre – (bought @94 and @92) hold stock for updated TG 98+ with SL 86.

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) its below its good support 129, will wait for mkt and then will think to average our buying levels.

FDC (Bought at 88) hold for TG 94+, SL 78

Bank of India (bought 358) TG 375+ SL 352

Today’s MG Mantra
Don’t make fresh position till IIP Nos. If you are going long then make only Intraday positions as market mood is not decided yet.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

42 comments:

  1. sir,im an engg student. i started trading with an invstment of 25k before 2 months and nw i'm having oly 7k left n my account. I trade oly options of NIFTY and INFY.
    i made mistakes like not keepin stop loss and being over confident on one side.
    actually what are all the points we have to look before buying an option of a stock??

    anybody can share their views or suggestions on this.

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  2. Dear Pradeep, for students it suggested to stay away from FNO, needless to say why. For any FNO position first u need to check what stock says i.e. upmove or down, secondly if stock shows upmove then one need to check what mkt sentiment is, if mkt sentiment is not good then leave it. Trade only in one condition if u get all 2 votes out of 2. i.e. stock up + Nifty up - go long, stock down + NIfty down - go short. Just have patience, dont lose patience, stay here, till u dont find good FNO call trade in cash till that. Plz dont follow my high risk call, u can take risk only below 2K calls only.

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    1. Thank u sir.I trade options because i felt its moving more than stocks.even if i take position n risky options with a stp loss means i can avoid huge loss rite sir??
      i will stay with this blog sir. I really wanna learn from my mistakes n try to avoid it in future.
      Also if u have any 2k calls. share that sir.
      sir,thanks again fr taking time to guide me :)

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    2. Dear Pradeep, though I am also a learner in stock market yet just have lil more(2+yrs) experience than you....situation was same for me too in various times...became confident on one side too many times....but dont loose hope,be practical,have Patience.....and after lossing many times I have realized something that I want to share with you--
      (Whether you follow technical or fundamental or both or whatever it is) Never Expect/Hope/see What You Want to,but always try to see What Market Shows you.
      MG Sir am I correct??

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    3. Thanks arka bro :) i'm learning d hard way :)
      im waiting for my call letter from CTS till tat i will trade.Also share if u got any calls :) it'l be helpfull fr a fresher like me.

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  3. Friends, Nifty 5300 PE is not performing, I am exiting @cost and buying Infy 2550 call @30 once again for TG42 SL20

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    1. Sir TM abhi abhi 250 cross kia..I mean attempt to liya aaj...so can I go for the 240 put or should I wait and watch??(Nifty bhi dhire dhire upar aa raha hai....but daar bhi laag raha hai..agar IIP data kuch garbar kaar diya to...)Confused...

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  4. NO, I have bought 260 call @3.5 for TG 4.25, now high chances for TM to touch 254-255, read M Bells carefully, I have clearly warned if it cross 250 then will go 252-255 then will think for PUTs

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  5. Safe side you can enter Infy 2550 call @30, I guess it will give u good returns as now chances for NIfty to go 5400 are more.

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    1. Sir Aap ko hi follow kia but exact level pe nhi le paya...bought Infy 2550 call @ 32...and TM 260 call @ 3.6.....

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  6. Buy Infy 2550 Call @ 31.8. Sir this is the best plate form . At least we get your mesg clearly. At Money control we have to search. Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Thoda call dene me dar bhi lagta he kahin kisi ka nuksan na ho jaye OW when I exit Nifty PUT I bought 3 lots of Nifty 5500 call @15 and since its only a matter of 2250, I can bear loss and thats will keep for long as chances for Nifty to cross 5400 is more.

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  7. Thanksji, aap sabhi logon ne isi liye MCB se yahan bhagaya... :)

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  8. Friends keep eye on Adani Enterprise CMP 175, can reach 190+. Keep eye mean wait for few minutes to come down to enter a bit lower level. Remember its positional and need Nifty to reach around 5430 levels for TG.

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  9. Sir Can you please target or exit for INFY Call.. Its rocking

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    Replies
    1. If u have 2 lots then one can book profit above 37 else nothing harm in wait. jayda se jayda hum @cost exit le lenge. My TG is 42+ even more (say 60) if Nifty just cross 5385 & 5400.

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    2. Dont mind anyone but heart patient can book profit. Jo mila thik he.:) MG

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    3. Sir Mkt ne itne attach de diye hai ke ab aadat ho gayee hai but with you I hv full confident. I will book the profit when you say

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    4. 42 TG Achieved... book profit... kal fir pakad lenge

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  10. i did not get your opinion about IDFC. 132 on card. So are you advising me to keep holding my put option? As if i close my holdings, i will be in a big loss (optimisttrader).

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    Replies
    1. Meaning IDFC may touch 132. Mtk easing as big fear of German parliament to restrict ESM is off the table. You can wait, SL could be higher, as suggested chances for Nifty to cross 5400 is higher. So all depends on how much risk u can take as I also can't guess action for next week or so.

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    2. i am a risk taker, but bit scared as my knowledge is very limited. My risk taking habit didn't go well so far. So please advice how could i learn technical analysis in a more precise way.

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    3. Its long learning tool, start study FNO terms on google, when u will learn all definition then start experiencing it as experience is the only way becoz book written thing all know and that's big crocos and operators play tricky. I dont rely on nasty chart pattern most of time, for me its just a tool to exit.

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    4. thanks for the advice. I am now bit familiar with the FNO terms and definition. But the main problem for me is to decide exit point (for both loss and profit). I cant figure out the trend and its boundaries. Most of the time I exit on the wrong moment (At the beginning of the trend ).

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  11. News update - German parliament will not oppose ESM, good signal for more easing from Fed.

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  12. Close above 5385 will be good for mkt. Next hurdle is 5400.

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  13. Friends enjoyyyyyy
    Book profit in Infy... kal fir isi me dhyan dena he.

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  14. Friends jab me msg post karta hoon to aapako email par ya G+ par indiacate hota he kya??? ya fir aap long refresh karake dekhate he?

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    Replies
    1. Sir Main to refresh karta hu.....

      And Infy me profit book kar liya...@ 40 sell kar diya...:)...achcha lag raha hai...600 rs a day not bad....:)...TM 260 call hold karu na?? kiuke 4.25 to abhi tak reach nhi hua....

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    2. how 600??? 8Rs profit from ur buy level will give u 1000. have u mis calculated??

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    3. Great sir,.thank you. I have followed your call for infy and got a profit of 750.
      And I refresh my page to check for updates

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    4. Sorry Sir....I miscaculated,Its 770 Profit not 600...Actually I trade through HDFCSEC....so for 1 Lot per side 100+16 is brokerage...so for two side total deduction 232....Though gross Profit is 1000 but net is 770....:)

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    5. Try Zerodha. Flat Rs.20 as brokerage. If you want I can refer you. I'll get some advantage too :)

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    6. I have heard about ZeroDha....But I dont know much about their online platform...so ...can you please tell me bout that thing...(well I know you will have lil advantages also..:P)...

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  15. Sir, holding TM @238. should I book profit tomorrow? or wait for 255levels?

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    Replies
    1. Rear M Bells... will give good idea. I can't say separately for TM, we always need to watch mkt sentiment too.

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  16. i bought infy 2550 @ 32.35 and TM 260 @ 3.60, holding it for tomorrow :) .
    we are refreshing this blogs spot, that's ok. For google+ try this link once please, i'm not sure whether it will work for comments or not.
    http://google-plus.com/3530/how-to-connect-and-post-to-google-from-blogger-or-blogspot/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gr8... I charge one large for every profit booking call and once convert into bottle courier :) MG

      TM may go above expectation but we should cautious and keep comfortable SL. Infy not a prob.

      Best strategy for trade in FNO, always buy 2 lots, one sell at first TG so that u will never be in loss in most of successful call. This way sometime u can get jackpot. The only loss in case call goes wrong.

      Sell Infy above 2550 becoz above 2550 it will fluctuate so quickly and u will be under pressure. Like what hapnd in Nifty today.

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    2. thanks, i'll exit infy and TM tomorrow. Sure whenever i'm in pune next time will have drink from me :).

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  17. Dear Arka, OI increase mean - if more buyers than seller stock will up, more seller than buyer stock will go down, same is applicable for FNO more puts mean stock is bearish and more calls mean stock showing strength. (but all should be in the money)

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  18. Sir I understand that if buyer are more for a high strike call than shorter then price will go up....But my question is how can somebody predict seeing the build up of OI that this stock will go up or this will go down??
    If the stock price goes up then we can conclude that buyers were more than shorters ... but when OI data is shown then it is not declared how much for buyer or how much seller.....isnt it??

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  19. Sir I want to give some example...

    some days ago on MMB somebody announced that TM 250 call has built up huge OI today, so stock price will go up....not only in TM you can see these kind of msg almost on all board and almost every where....
    But my question is How they can surely say that if TM 250 call has built up huge OI then most of that OI is created by buyers and there by price will go up?? Is there any website or data showing page where it shows how much OI is for buyers or shorters??
    I mean if buyers are more(the cause) then price will go up(the effect)...thats ok....but how can somebody predict about the effect without being sure about the cause???
    Thank you Sir....

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