Sunday 16 September 2012

Morning Bells (17 Sept. 12)


Good Morning Friends,

So finally Govt. makes it T20, Marta Kya Na Karta, after fuel hike now Govt. has approved FDI too, and its turn for RBI, though inflation is much above comfort level so only expectation for CRR for 25 point is on card. Nothing much hurt the market on reform part except further political situations. However Govt. has got enough time to handle the ruckus. But now market will go volatile even on small political development whichever will go against stability of Govt.

I have already share my deep thought about Govt. move and further possibilities on political front on MCB & on my blog under Weekend Special post. One can still catch it on blog easily.

On Friday evening, the Govt. allowed FDI - 51% in multi-brand retail, 49% in aviation and raised the FDI cap in broadcasting from 49% to 74%. Many of the stocks from these sectors have already seen a rally in past few days on hopes of these decisions and the upmove is likely to continue on Monday so stocks of aviation, retail and cable companies are likely to be on buyers' radar.

MARKET OUTLOOK -
Fed and ECB actions had their immediate impacts on inflation as the commodity prices rose instantly across the globe. So if RBI somehow joins the party (why I am thinking because now $ stock will grow so if in any chance RBI thinks to take risk) will bad news for those who are expecting Nifty correction and expiry will go above 5500.

After FDI announcement today market will continue with the momentum, enjoy the ride.

NIFTY
Bulls are partying at the moment and today also it will be good day for them. Sentiments have boosted already.

So as per current data I do not see weakness in Nifty. 52 week high is 5630 and that’s suggested Nifty will face first resistance at 5630 – 5650 -5685, then my final range for Nifty is 5650-5685 where Nifty can go for correction if market continue with uptrend. Trend remains bullish till 5390 is safe on closing basis.

PCR at 1.06 & Iindia Vix 15.38. Huge unwinding seen in 5400, 5500 & 5600 calls, while 17 lac share were added to 5800 call. Fresh shorts were created in 5600 & 5500 PUT. Now 5600 call & 5300 Put has highest OI and that’s most of us are expecting correction. Huge addition in a single day (i.e. on 14th) to 5600 Put giving sense bears will fight tough and give a try to close Nifty below 5600 after having gap-up today. DII are still on sell counter while FII is on Buy counter, let see what in store today for both.

Another gap-up opening is on card, to my view Nifty will open either somewhere around 5605 or between 5620-5625.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Coal Blocks - The inter-ministerial group (IMG) on coal blocks has decided to recommend cancellation of two mines awarded to Bhushan Steel & SKS Ispat & Power, so stock will be on sellers RADAR. Panel had also recommended cancellation of Gouganrdih ABC mine given jointly to JSW Steel and Himachal EMTA. Recommendation for Tata Steel, Reliance Power, Bhushan Steel blocks reviewed. - Source MoneyControl.com

Banks – Will remain volatile with upmove.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- will face resistance 273, 276-282 is the range from where we can expect correction, while support comes to 264 & 259. Do not make fresh position on this counter today till RBI announcement, wait and watch will be good for wealth.

Sesa Goa & Sterlite Industry - Goa has temporarily suspended all mining activities, effective from Tuesday, after an expert panel formed by the central government found "serious illegalities and irregularities" in mining operations, according to reports. Reports stated that Goa has not banned movement of iron ore already produced and stored at ports or in transit. Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries will be most affected stocks if anything goes against mining orders. Be safe on this counters.

OPEN CALLS
Right now I have only 1 open call, all other I have closed with good profit booking.

Cox&Kings - TG 148, SL 121

Today’s MG Mantra
Market is expected for correction which can take place as per operators convenience -1 (i.e. from today) or +2 (i.e. as ppl expecting on Tue, so could be from Thus). Trade with strict SL is suggested and don’t set big TGs.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

41 comments:

  1. Dear Badal, RBI disappointment is already priced in, the only chances if it surprise then mkt will cheer else mkt will be on its own path. Read MBells updating in 15 min. giving final touch.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sir,

    if you can recall, i already lost 4.5 lacs in IDFC and need your help to recover that at least...

    Sir loan amount is still increasing..please help

    Ashish

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. stay on blog, promise yourself you will not trade without guidance & will increase patience and will control your greed - market will be yours.

      Go to other sections of this blog specially rocking history you will know its not so easy to earn in stock market.

      Delete
  3. Thank you, sir. But somehow bank is not allowing me to have patience, need to do something. Any valuable advice in this regard.

    Thank you once more sir.

    ReplyDelete
  4. plz share ur complete details to understand what can be done in this. If any hesitation then share ur email ID. though I personally feel we all are like family here.

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  5. hello sir
    this is your newest fan ..you are doing a great work her...
    i am reading u since last week.
    just wanna ask what you think for L&T?
    as i have short sell it @1400.
    seeking your advice..what shud i do sir?
    thanks...

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  6. Thanks, Only Nifty correction can help you else its good going. recent it has 2 HNS so if this time it form it perfectly then u will get chance for exit, secondly I dont express view with confidence until I dont track stock with sector development news. Today it will give you idea, watch 1525 & 1558, last one is the SL, but your TG seems difficult. All will depend on size of Nifty correction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thanks sir for ur valuable suggestion..
      will keep tracking it...

      Delete
  7. sir,

    it's " yourash4u@yahoo.com "

    sir,

    it will be great if you can give me some personal advice.

    Thank you sir.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Sir,

    I read your rocking history & completely agree with it. Similar kind of situation is mine sir, kuch to karna hi padega....harnewala to mai bhi nahi hu sir.

    With your best wishes,
    Ashish

    ReplyDelete
  9. Good to read MG's MB, getting clues on Market and Individual Stocks...keep it up.

    I am expecting a resistance at 5630. Open Interest analysis suggesting up move beyond 5600 difficult to sustain but like you said wait and watch to see how data builds from here is a good idea, thanks once again.

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  10. Good Morning MG! I am long in Indusund bank and Kingfisher. should I book profit and exit or is still some upside left. I am also short in Titan at 237. Shud I continue holding shorts as it has not gone up much. Your valuable advice is much looked forward for. Thanks

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  11. Sir What a superb call of Ster. I have bought it @ 99 and today sold @ 102.50. 2000 Ka Lot.. Thank you Sir

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  12. Replies
    1. Few days back I made mistake by so many request for new calls and then realize how difficult to handle too many calls and that's one disappointment was there Arvind. So once again opted slightly reserve policy, if anything will find good will share with all of you.

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  13. As per my strong expectation RBI cuts CRR by 0.25% to 4.5.

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  14. Sir booked profit in Indusind Bank.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good... profit booking is my first priority no matter then where stock goes. down side Nifty is could be 5580 i.e. as suggested close below 5600 so watch Titan and book profit in that too.

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    2. Hi Archana, watch for Titan 247-248.

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    3. Sir I am short on Titan at 238 so at the moment in loss. Feel a little correction might pull it down to my levels. In profit after so many days all because of you. God bless you MG.

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    4. That's I informed you, it may touch 247-248, so once mkt shows weakness and it goes below ur buy level either book profit or be with strict SL.

      Delete
    5. Thanks Sir! will b cautious and put a stop loss. Thanks

      Delete
  15. Sir, Thank you for ur Shoppers stop Call. Could book some profit today. Appreciate the work ur doing. Thank u once again. Bought some cox and kings as per ur call today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was a open call, unlike others I dont hide my bad parts too, some of my friends had bought it around 138, it was a short-mid term call so still I am expecting it achieve TG. Market go under correction and that's suggested not to build fresh position till correction over.

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    2. Bought only 50 will average if correction takes place. no problem. I have faith in ur calls. Thanks

      Delete
  16. As suggested Nifty will show weakness once it will reach in the range of 5650-5685... same is happening.

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  17. Sir, After correction do u think it would be advisable to enter tata motors and if so at what levels ?

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  18. Yes TM will go high after mkt correction. waiting for good level to enter.

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  19. Dear MG sir,
    what is the background behind the magnified movement for TM. Do you expect any downwards in this counter. If then what is the best level to enter again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As told many times even when TM was around 220 lvl, now TM is more concern with EU as JLR is their main profit. So TM will act as per EU development and not much with Indian market. Recently they have invested aprs 275cr. on JLR equipment to compete the market in more aggressive way and that's I have suggested to grab 290 & 300 call of Oct. after correction is over. For options player remember its risk of 5K and reward will be well enough to reduce your debt. but yes its risk of aprx 5K.

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    2. Sir If TM start moving in Oct like this pace(last 6-7 trading session)....then really 290 and 300 call for Oct series very tempting .. :)....
      I will definitely take the risk....Plz just guide us what level will be the ryt time to enter.....

      Again Sir, Many many thanks to you and yourMorning Bell.....Hats Off....

      Delete
  20. Sometimes when we booked profit at lower level we feel extremely bad and though started hammering "shit! we could have that much" and it increase our level of risk - but in long run I learnt that at our comfortable level we need to book profit else you will be in trouble. My todays exp. as told in M Bells, TataSteel was on my sell RADAR, I sold 1 future at 413 for TG 405, when it reaches 408 and was showing strength but waited to Nifty to around 5590, finally I squared off at 407.5, it went to my TG, felt OOps!! then went for lunch, when back its 413. Proved again right! ONE SHOULD NEED TO CONTROL OVER GREED TO WIN THE MARKET.

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  21. MG sir
    What is the level to enter in TM as of now.

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    Replies
    1. Its not right time to enter, ppl who are holding can hold but for new entry I am waiting. May be I could wrong here but as told I for a bit cautious policy no matter if I lose the bus. (to my very personal view)

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  22. SBI will go good in coming days. Through CRR cut it will save of aprx 200Cr. said Pratip Chaudhuri.

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  23. Risk takers - can buy SBI 2150 call around 15 for TG 30+

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  24. Tata Steel is also looks weak, catch it tomorrow, if mkt shows weakness then it may touch 400.

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  25. Sir! shud i short Tata steel now.

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