Monday 17 September 2012

Morning Bells (18 Sept. 12)


Good Morning Friends,

“Do not expect the circumstances to be always in your favor, because this world has not been created for you alone!”

Well, the day will remain on the name of M3 – Mamta, Mulayam & Maya. TMC holding meeting today and will take decision on support to UPA Govt. So Market seems highly volatile and under pressure.

Amid uncertainty of political development on various front FM told that decisions taken will not be rollback, PM too clarified his stand on this conveying strong message to Mamta to consider all this (we have options) before making any hard decision.

The RBI did not cut interest rates and it did not surprise the market as this was already priced in. Indices closed firm but off day's highs.

Govt. raises diesel prices to reduce widening fiscal deficit and to boost investor sentiment, but it seems a bit difficult when we try to have a look on it. On Monday FM P Chidambaram also discussed on GDP and fiscal deficit, he told India would be lucky if it manages to hold country's fiscal deficit at 5.1% of the GDP. However, several economists do not agree with the Govt.’s fiscal deficit projection of 5.1% and predict that it could reach 6% or more.

There is a also a fear that some roll back may happen and most probably Govt. can increase the number of LPG cylinder supply to ten from six in a year.


On FDI part, decision will not boost investment sentiment aggressively as there’s some uncertainty. Investor will keep a slightly modest approach as without a change in the mindset about the State’s role in the economy it seems difficult. In other hand key cities like Banglore, Chennai, Ahmedabad and Kolkatta are out of the ambit of FDI in retail because of opposition from the respective state governments. FDI in aviation too may be a non-starter because of the structural problems facing the industry, and lack of majority stake for the foreign players.

So overall, now its watch for inning for balling team i.e. all who were trying to attack the Govt.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Well as told y’day that we will see consolidation whenever Nifty will reach in the range of 5650-5685 same has happened but finally bull got success to close above 5600.

As discussed, market cheered the FDI decision but on ground part it has miles to go and that’s after a spike in FDI affected stock we have noticed some cool off in those equities.

Market is expected for correction or for consolidation, it may take place today. So its not right time to initiate fresh longs except few select stocks.

NIFTY
FII have initiated fresh longs in Nifty & Bank Nifty, bought Index Futures aprx 1122crores. So bulls will try to defend 5600 which seems difficult for them as we also have holiday on Wednesday to welcome Bappa, so profit booking can take place, also global market ended lowered that will too discourage the boosted sentiment.

PCR has reduced to 1.03 and Vix 17.78. Now Resistance has come up to 5620 - 5650 – 5685 and Supports has come to 5585 & 5550. So close below 5550 will favour bears in next few sessions.

Opening seems subdued and market may go volatile & under pressure after opening.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

FDI in Aviation –
FDI in Aviation has different meaning for individuals, have look –

Kingfisher Airlines- rose 20%, sharpest among all its listed peers on hopes that the company will be able to rope in a strategic investor, some media report says they are already in talks with a foreign carrier who will pick up stakes in the carrier.

Jet- has aprx 13,000 crore debt on its books, and they needs Rs 1500- 2000 crore for working capital and is in talks with banks to raise funds.

Spice – Stock rose 15%. As I had already told you earlier, to my view it will be one of the top pick if FDI get through. My view was on the basis - company could be best pick for foreign investor - comfortable debt levels, improving market share, operational efficiencies. Also Mr. SL Narayanan, Group CFO and promoter of the company has told to CNBC TV18 that the airline may close an FDI deal by the year end thereby lifting investor confidence.

FDI in Retail -
Sector would remain in worry as already told one of the main reasons above and that’s retail stocks off their day’s high. Moody has commented on FDI in Retain in India - "Therefore, the credit benefit of the announcement can only be recognized when a major multi-brand retailer actually receives all regulatory approvals to invest," said in a note on Monday. (source MoneyControl.com)

Coal Blocks –
Reports stated that IMG has recommended forfeiting of the bank guarantees of the two companies. JSW Steel is likely to lose its mining licence for a coal block held jointly with Himachal EMTA, according to reports, there are also reports that IMG, however, did not recommend any action against the coal blocks owned by Tata Steel and Reliance Power. Source MoneyControl.com.

Banks – SBI will remain volatile and will rebound after consolidation.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- Global sales increased 13% in August to 97,225 units and as tradition it may remain under pressure, Resistance 286-295-300 while it will get support 266-257. Stock may also hover for long between 271-280

OPEN CALLS

Cox&Kings - Bought 138 & 127, TG 148, SL 121

Today’s MG Mantra
Market is expected for correction so trade with strict SL is suggested and don’t set big TGs.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

65 comments:

  1. MG Sir, if there is gap down opening for TM, will be right idea to buy 280 CE for the current expiry or 260 PE. Pls suggest.

    Also is SBIN 2150 CE call open or should we wait?

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  2. People who are thinking to catch SBI 2150 call need to wait, look how Nifty opens, if it acts as per suggestion then wait will give you some benefit.For TS (TataSteel) watch it carefully as y'day reports saying its time being out of danger from de-allocation. Lets see how things takes place. One friend had posted good msg on MCB - Money which is not lost is Money Earned!. - Have a profitable day.

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  3. for SBI 2150 call one can buy below 15 and sell once it reaches 2100 mark. Just keep eye for Nifty to buy it at lower level it will be ur profit.

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  4. Sir,just want to express my thought....though M3 may create panic..but I think they cant do much....last time when left front oppose that nuclear deal , at that time also PM did not roll back....and this time also they have announced that they will not roll back.....what I mean to say...they are probably much more calculative than us regarding their vote bank and alliance power(isnt it Sir??)...so I think they have definitely got some positive hints from some party that even if M3 tries to withdraw their support govt may sustain.....(Its just my personal view comparing the situation with last time).....

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  5. Sir, Shud I buy Titan next mth fut.to hedge my position. It is already touching 244. slightly worried now.

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    Replies
    1. HI Archana, I already told u y'day its going to touch 247, and only after that if it go in sync with NIfty correction is the only possibility, wait for second half.

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    2. Thanks Sir!Really value all the help even though you do not track this stock.

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  6. Sir Again you are Rocking(I should not probably say "Again"... :P...because you are always rocking as usual)...

    SBIN 2150 Call bought yesterday seeing your reco....@ 15.5 and just sold @ 31.25....:D

    Thank Sir....(Now will wait till you recommend to enter in TM for Oct series 290 & 300 Call)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To fir aaj to din achcha jayega... u made aprx 1800... now slowly slowly try to read scrip behavior. Keep eye on it once again... Ek large aur store kar lena guruji ka. once convert into bottle ask to courier :)

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    2. Definitely Sir....courier kiu main khud hi aa jaunga....waise aapke profile me dekha hu k aap pune me study kiye ho aur mumbai me rehte ho....main bhi to abhi pune me hi hu........:P:D

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  7. Nice one stop place for overall news that will effect markets, now no need to scan through all websites/papers and break my head. Thanks, MG. Keep up the good work.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Lakshmiji, aapaki kripa bani rahegi to ye efforts aur aage tak jayenge. I have big dream, if got success them ppl will even forget to visit all other places. M Bells takes 2+ hours to prepare as its source of info for over 600+ ppl from 10 countries everyday.

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    2. God always bless good people and bless even more the people who has tendency to help others. Wish your dreams come true.

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  8. Hope some of you would have been booked profit in SBI call as TG achieved. Please keep eye to re-enter same call on lower level after Nifty correction, SBI may touch 2150 before expiry and this call can touch 50+ TG.

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  9. I missed SBI call due to funny reason, i put order @ 20 then i assumed order went through. But it never went when i realised it was at 31 :). Tata Steel i was cautious as it was hovering withing Rs 2-3. Will enter SBI call once again when it go down as you suggested.

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  10. :) yes its hapns some times, with me many times as I remain busy in replying and roaming across forums. Better luck next time.

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  11. Even I can make higher value call for same scrip but I know my most of friends are not in condition to take big value risk and that's I remain stick to low value call so if in a case it go reverse of my view they will not lose any big amount.

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  12. Hi, Good Morning..Can u pls suggest the target and stop loss for sintex.Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. 67-68 seems possible with SL 53 (as per current outlook), also track sector development news and share if get.

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  13. Hi MG Sir
    Good Morning
    Any input for TM future.

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    Replies
    1. as suggested wait, seems correction is not over, TM is weak.

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  14. After a long gap once again I am near to big bang, SBI 2150 call I had bought @4 (2lots) and it had hot discussion on MCB (with some chart analysts) that time, now its going for 10+ times.

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    Replies
    1. Yes Sir truly....not only 2150..You also suggest us to buy 2200 call Sept series on or before 24th august(at that time price was about 6 or 7 rs...after that when it came down to 3 rs then also you have suggested)....at that time many people were criticizing us and predicting that it will went down to 1700 level or even below that....but now probably they have burnt their finger....Rocking call by you Guruji...Thank and Hats Off...

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  15. Thanksji, and congrats to all u too for having profitable path.

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  16. I am going to book profit in SBI at 37, now dont want to take unnecessary risk, it will shine again but I am not sure about mkt move as I am already expecting correction so it may down to 5580-90. Lets see else will catch it later. As 9 times is also not bad.:)

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  17. "9 times is also not bad"---matlaab???

    Sir Adani ent ka kuch suggestion hai kya?? last weak se dekh raha hu....ye stock nifty k sath to nhi jata hai(chart jaise dikha raha hai)..... kuch trade kaarne ka chance hai ya fir wait karu??

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  18. I had bought it @4 and sold it @37 which is 9 times of my buying price. Wait is suggested for taking any long... dont get addicted, today u have earned good one, just a small mistake will take back ur earnings... and I have learnt patience and control over greed through my indigence days.

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  19. sir, what is your view on axis bank??
    im holding 1100 CE of it.

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  20. Dear Pradeep I dont track it but banks is on move right now, it all depends on ur buying price, mkt is weak and may be weak on Thus too. Today's closing will give indication, if it closes below 5600 or say below 5590 then chances to touch 5560 is more.

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  21. Sir! calls ke live rates kahaan dekhte hain. Money control does not have put - call rates.

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    Replies
    1. I think Money control displays the option prices below the chart of each individual stock.

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    2. No Pradeep - its display only Future prices, not options

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    3. http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/get_quote/GetQuoteFO.jsp?underlying=TATAMOTORS&instrument=OPTSTK&expiry=30AUG2012&strike=-&type=CE

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    4. also try dis URL.."http://www.bigpaisa.com/pivotpoints"

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    5. yourmoneysite.com is a live terminal, all other need to refresh every time.

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  22. sir,also if the govt rollback the diesel by 1 or 2rs due to pressure from its allies,how the market will react to that?

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  23. As suggested it wont hurt that much except a bit volatility, main aim is went through FDI, though its has lot of hurdles but its already priced in.

    Archana - I use my brokers trading terminal for all prices, you can get it at - yourmoneysite.com or google few more site will be providing it.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Sir! Sir Tata Motor 300 call is trading at 1.10 rs. If today there is some correction shud we buy or wait for thursday. Which call shud one buy that is near to the trading price or the one that we feel the stock could hit in the coming days.

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    2. wait is my strategy, ur titan is coming down.

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  24. No sir.Its a drop down menu.we can select Futures or options.

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    Replies
    1. you didnt get my point, just visit site suggested you will know what I mean.

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  25. plz try to learn this, as mentioned in MBells, how beautifully bulls are defending 5600 mark, they are trying to cementing 5600 for bears. Fight to capture and defend... great battle view.

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  26. SBI call disappointing me, waiting to capture it again but its not going down lol. After msg I sold it at 39. It has TG of 50+ but how lower I catch it will be my profit and will save my one side brokerage too.

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  27. Now I think its time bears will activate in next 15 minutes, they can try to drag Nifty below 5590.

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  28. your SBI call has zoomed to 45 :-)

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    Replies
    1. Man it made high 46.9 still it has more room, just watching to buy again at lower level.

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    2. Sir lower level pe milega kya?? ye to pagal ho gaya laag raha hai...niche aane ka naam hi nhi le raha hai.....:(.....

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  29. Milega thoda intezar kijiye... aaj nahi to Thus ko... by the way you all aware - tomorrow is holiday.

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  30. Also wud like to let you know...have been following your blog and really appreciate your efforts..but more than that your humbleness and the will to benefit everyone. Keep up the good work.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Kris, just small efforts with hope one day you will be billionaire and then you all will help me that time :)

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  31. Same way our Infy call which we had bought @30 made high of 86 but most of us loosed confidence and exit early.

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  32. Dont buy SBI at this point, will have fresh look on Thus

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  33. Vivek, finally it made in last moment i.e. TS, we missed it.

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    Replies
    1. yes, that's the beauty of market, if some one take risk, get rewarded. But as we are in mode of playing safe, that's ok. We can get another opportunity. Also today i was playing around BGREnergy, got around 8K in last two day as day was for Mid Cap shares. Now i don't have open F&O items except one put & call of 5600 /5700. Will take guideline from your MBell on Thursday.

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  34. Dear MG Sir,Do you have any page/Account in facebook.If No requesting you to make a page in facebook aswell where we can interact/share our views and likes very easily.
    If you have the same,kindly share it!!!Thanks..

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  35. Hi Ashfak, its really difficult to go there as it has certain limitations, also their new timeline is also not good. Wait for some time, some of our friends are working for personal page, that time we will have facebook button too.

    Are you getting any problem here? if yes then let me know will try to find out the solution, as ppl had suggested G+ I am sharing it over there too.

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  36. No sir, there is nt any problems here.I personally feel that facebook is much better than G+.
    I am not much using G+,may be that is what I feel so.A small suggestion on this blog for more comments and user friendly,If it is possible kindly remove the verification part (prove I am not a robot),then would be more better and easy to use.Anyway its all well sir...Thanx.

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  37. The verification part included intentionally, since there are many ppl roam and can made harmful comments and can post many ads here, so at least that way we can track them. On very first day some one had ugly comment which was of frustration of paid service provider.. have look on first post, you will find I have commented "No bullshit is allowed here"... I know it would be a bit difficult for you but think for me, I dont get time even to reply msgs then one more burden of removing spam from both place here as well as my mail & G+

    Just hope soon we will have good platform but will take time.

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  38. Sir....Match to bohot interesting ho gaya abhi....Nonsense Mamata ...... agar by chance UPA Govt sustain kaar gaye taab to Market me aur bhi jump ho saakta hai...hai na?? kiuke opposition ye saab faaltu kaam karega ye to saayaad discounted hai already....
    At least Mamata should learn from the mistake that Left Front had done 3 year ago.....
    What is your view Sir???

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    Replies
    1. sahi bol rahe ho aap bhai...ab sp aur bsp wale moti rakam leke faisla denge...or else..mamata ka funda hit ho sakta hai..ab to log bhi chahte hain papaji (mm singh) chale jayein..rest apne sirjee bata denge..

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    2. posted new page, u will find my view there

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