Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Morning Bells (25 Oct 12)


Good Morning Friends.

“Do not expect the circumstances to be always in your favour, because this world has not been created for you alone!”

So finally day has come, a quite strange and painful expiry where we seen many range bound session and more importantly last two weeks was specially designed to eat the premiums of both CE & PE.

Well as suggested in MB and also updated during market hours that on Tuesday market may go down come true and finally ended 25 pts down, it was 32 pts down but as said now its time for more n faster server & software, in post closing session Nifty corrected 7 pts. And finally closed at 5691. The main reason for sideline of market participant was Dussera holiday and F&O expiry today.

RIL has announced that the Hon'ble High Court of Gujarat at Ahmedabad has sanctioned the Scheme of Amalgamation of Reliance Jamnagar Infrastructure Limited ("RJIL" or "the Transferor Company") with Reliance Industries Limited ("RIL" or the "Company’) ("Scheme"). – (Source IIFL.com)

On Crude OIL front, crude oil price for Indian Basket declined sharply to 108.5$/bbl on Tuesday according to (PPAC) on 22.10.2012.

European stocks & US stocks both fell down deep red on Wednesday so I can say due to holiday we saved from a deep pain.

Euro zone businesses in October suffered their worst month since the bloc emerged from its last recession more than three years ago, forcing them to cut more jobs to reduce costs, surveys showed on Wednesday.

The downturn that began in smaller periphery countries is now gripping Germany and France, dragging the euro zone as a whole deeper into the quagmire.
Markit's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which polls around 5,000 businesses across the 17-nation bloc and is viewed as a reliable growth indicator, fell to 45.8 this month from a September reading of 46.1. (Report - MoneyControl.com)

So I don’t have much to say as its day of expiry and chart wont suggest you anything, so let’s have a look where this expiry going to take place as its surprised whole month so there could be no surprise today.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Its like last over of the match and need to watch it carefully as this expiry will decide how next series will take place in first half. So, lets see where expiry is going to take place as upside seems capped and on down side it would be interesting to see whether BULLS manage this expiry between 5650-5700 or not.

Best idea is to stay sideline till Nifty don’t break this trading range as its giving sense for something big. Its still in No Trade Zone, one can make only Intraday position or can wait for breakout of level either side.

The INDIA VIX on NSE surges 5% to end at 13.79 and PCR is 0.95.

NIFTY OUTLOOK

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Oct-2012

BUY
SELL
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
Action

No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores

INDEX FUTURES
234252
6702.61
233442
6614.64
718471
18473.36
87.97
INDEX OPTIONS
468342
13285.35
451363
12828.76
1841629
52436.57
456.59
STOCK FUTURES
369442
10836.29
382696
11203.95
1149826
33490.46
-367.66
STOCK OPTIONS
35962
1129.61
34769
1100.41
81287
2595.09
29.20

We can clearly see that FII went long on Index future while they shorted stock future and that’s most of indices closed in RED.

On long side Nifty 5800CE has highest OI of 1.16 Cr with unwinding of 5.6 Lac, 5900CE has second highest OI of 55.84 Lacs which is real worry for bulls as both are OTM.

On short side Nifty 5600PE OI has highest OI of 75.48 with unwinding of 8 Lacs, 5500PE has second highest OI of 57.11 with unwinding of 82K, this is also strange with such a low unwinding, and both are OTM.

So if we see through data it’s seen that we are still in the range of 5600-5800. So most probably expiry seems between 5650-5700 marks or 50 pts either side. A 5% chances for sharp decline also seen.

Now Resistance comes to 5714 - 5737 – 5753 and Supports comes to 5674 – 5656 - 5635.

Opening again seems under pressure, may be market can show some strength in the beginning. PCR and VIX are also suggesting weakness.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Realty Sector
Is set to move big after expiry ahead of festive season. It seems good bet. DB Realty & Oberoi Realty.

Steel Sector
Steel seems under pressure. JSPL seems under pressure.

Infra Sector –
IRB and Reliance Infra will remain under pressure.

Power Sector
For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector
Bank will follow trend, and further show strength in later part.

IT Sector
Remain under pressure.

OPEN CALLS
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Bought @102 for TG 115 SL 83

Today’s MG Mantra
Don’t think to be millionaire in a single day, you may burn your finger. Sit on cash is suggested. Instead of repeated instruction most of you have burned fingers in this expiry and washed out Sept. earnings.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.
2. Those who don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

20 comments:

  1. PNR showing weakness since long time, today also seems weak and may test 180 levels (CMP 186)

    Bank also seems week most of time today specially PSU.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello sir ,
    can we make position in pfc today below 190 ?

    Holding relinfra , thinking to exit today itself.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Don, take clue from Nifty will be good i.e. 2.30 factor, 188 seems good level so first watch whether it hold it or not, if breaks then 184 is the level to to enter else 188 as suggested. But wait for Nifty as it could give pain as per data.

      Delete
  3. Hi MG,
    Good Morning and have a profitable day!

    Thanks,
    Rohit

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hope you would be making profit in JSPL & PNR.. Enjoy

    ReplyDelete
  5. I am your follower on MB as wasi1093,

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hello sir ,
    Nifty stuck in extreme small range ,
    no sign of movement till now but it may go up.
    Sir , keep eye on Financial tech , its consolidating and may go till 1030 .
    Exited rinfra with 5k loss.
    Waiting for PFC to come till 185.
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes good level for PFC, FinTech weak.

      Delete
  7. As suggested in MBells - RelInfta dipped 0.6%+, IRB dipped 10%+ JSPL dipped 1%+

    ReplyDelete
  8. I am good, Thanx

    Sir, I bought tatamotors 270PE(Oct) @ 4.60 and cmp7.00,
    shall i exit, please advise

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes profit booking is good, as auto sector showing strength and expiry day remain tricky.

      Delete
  9. Hello sir ,
    IRB down 17% , down 25 rs , if any one shorted it yesterday then gain of 50k in a single day and those who bought it ... WOW !
    Sir , midcap index down 0.50% , but is mainly due to IRB , also bank nifty flat , mkt is weak but volatile.
    Lets see what happens at 2:30 factor.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SUBHO BIJAYA(HAPPY DASHERA) to all..How are you SIR and everybody??

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hello sir ,
    Fintech target hit 1032 (up 2%) ,
    Sir I gave order of 1000 when it was 1005 but it did not came there and order still pending , very bad , hope I would have given mkt order .
    Mkt volatile...
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Good call Don . I made 15 points gain..Thanks Don

    ReplyDelete
  13. Citi group sells 47.98 lac shares in irb infra

    ReplyDelete