Morning Bells (22 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Word of Caution - Those who don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

There are 3 kinds of students in general. 1- Some make wonders happen! 2. Some see wonders happen! 3. Other wonders what happened!

So, finally Nifty ended 34 points down on Friday due to some selling pressure in the Power, Metals, Capital Goods, Auto and the Banking stocks. Even we have seen some offloading in the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks too. Market participants were cautious as a two-day European Union summit got underway in Brussels.

On home ground Aviation regulator DGCA has suspended the flying licence of Kingfisher Airlines for failing to come up with a viable plan for its financial and operational revival and resolve the impasse with its employees over payment of their salary dues. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has suspended the Scheduled Operator Permit of Kingfisher Airlines till further orders, Civil Aviation Ministry officials said. KFA has debt burden of another over Rs 7,524 crore. (Reports Moneycontro.com)

Market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has set a one-year target to complete investigations, saying that the long-drawn probe processes are a thing of past and manipulators can't escape the long arm of the law. "The impression about market manipulators going scot-free or the enforcement action getting delayed for years are all matters of the past," Sebi chairman UK Sinha told PTI in an interview.

On corporate earning side, TCS has announced good result and above market expert’s expectation. Market analysts were expecting TCS to report 3.5-4%. TCS posted net profit of Rs. 34343.70 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 as compared to Rs. 23010mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

Another major player ITC Ltd has also posted good result with a net profit of Rs. 18364.20 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 as compared to Rs. 15143.10 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

On Global front the U.S. stocks ended slightly with a negative bias in the previous trading session after disappointing results from Google and Microsoft. Google Inc reported consolidated revenues of US$14.10bn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012, an increase of 45% compared to Q3 of 2011, while Microsoft Corp announced quarterly revenue of US$16.01bn for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2012.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Ahead of expiry seems bears are trying to nod bulls but market seems in bullish phase and bulls are gearing up to drive Nifty up ahead of festive seasons, but of course after expiry, they are just waiting for expiry as its again one day short trading week.

So finally it closed below 5700 mark, as told, since past 2 weeks they playing passing the ball, had also informed that they could give a miss on Friday and same has happened. Still Nifty is trading in 5630-5730 range since a long time. Market may be highly volatile as it has only 3 trading sessions.

Best idea is to stay sideline till Nifty don’t break this trading range as its giving sense for something big. Its still in No Trade Zone, one can make only Intraday position or can wait for breakout of level either side.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19-Oct-2012
	BUY		SELL		OI AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	55801	1589.21	66577	1871.75	622617	15622.37	-282.53
INDEX OPTIONS	701360	19949.16	681339	19387.15	1859086	52857.20	562.01
STOCK FUTURES	169366	4868.11	168258	4893.88	1072645	31401.69	-25.76
STOCK OPTIONS	62555	1903.33	62560	1918.88	92284	2919.92	-15.55

So as we see clearly that FII has taken short position in Nifty. 5800CE has highest OI of 1.10 Crore with addition of 15.5 lacs, while 5900CE & 5700CE has OI 64 lacs & 62 Lacs. 5700 PE OI has come to 75.89 Lacs with unwinding of 11.6 Lacs.

India Vix slipped another day and closed to 14.54 and Nifty PCR is 0.93.

Now Resistance comes to 5710 - 5737 – 5762 and Supports comes to 5658 – 5632 - 5607.

Trend is not clear, so No trade zone, sitting on cash is always good, just watch out for breakout of any support or resistance will only give clear indication. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels, and then Nifty may retest 5800+.

Opening seems subdued say with slightly negative bias.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Realty Sector –

Is set to move big after expiry ahead of festive season.

Steel Sector –

Steel seems under pressure.

Tata Steel – Has broken out its support level and can test 400 mark in coming sessions.

Power Sector –

For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector –

May see some pressure.

IT Sector –

IT was on buying radar on Friday and will continue.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Bought @102 for TG 115 SL 83

Today’s MG Mantra –

Its No Trading Zone, watch for breakout of either side else play only Intraday and close positions before market close.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.