Thursday 25 October 2012

Morning Bells (26 Oct. 12)

Good Morning Friends.

“Do not expect the circumstances to be always in your favour, because this world has not been created for you alone!”

So finally October series expired without any magic but it has given much pain specially to option traders. Many range bound sessions reduced premium tremendously.

Well as Sun rises every day with rays of new hopes, we are in New & promising series. So lets start with fresh ideas.

As per SEBI data on city-wise distribution of turnover on cash segments of BSE and NSE (National Stock Exchange) Mumbai’s contribution to the total turnover on cash segment of BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) stood at 50.19% in August 2012 against 37.4% in the fiscal 2011-12, On NSE, Mumbai’s total turnover increased to 62% in August 2012 from 60.4% in FY11-12. (Report IIFL.com)

The cabinet has approved a proposal to sell 10% stake in state-run NMDC Ltd via a share sale, Heavy Industries Minister Praful Patel told reporters.

Adani Enterprises consolidated net profit fell by 42 percent year-on-year to Rs 320 crore in the second quarter of current financial year 2012-13 due to loss in its power business. Adani Enterprises has posted net profit after tax Rs. 3202.10 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 as compared to Rs. 5526.80 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Now we are in fresh series, all eye is on RBI policy review meet on 30 Oct., while market expecting buying momentum ahead of festive seasons.

So lets start with some small trades as its Friday, first day of new series and last day of week.

The INDIA VIX on NSE surges 5% to end at 13.52 and PCR is 1.04.

NIFTY OUTLOOK
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Oct-2012


BUY
SELL
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
Difference

No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores

INDEX FUTURES
246759
6316.63
215650
5412.74
406068
10171.95
903.89
INDEX OPTIONS
622562
17616.94
606334
17218.01
1295008
36954.01
398.93
STOCK FUTURES
293591
8429.41
318211
9160.09
960142
27932.70
-730.68
STOCK OPTIONS
35807
1106.87
34181
1055.37
3411
105.83
51.50

FII data shows the situation like y’day. FII went long in Index future while they shorted stock futures. Y’da once again Nifty failed to breach 5725, so we are still in 5640-5725 range and still we need to watch for breakout of either side before making positions. But as data shows today bulls can give a try to break 5725 & 5745 mark, as told many times buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

In the fresh series on long side Nifty 5900CE has highest OI of 31.31 Lac with fresh addition of 9.49 Lac, 6000CE has second highest OI of 29.13 Lacs with addition of 4.67. Huge addition of over 8.5 lacs see to both 6100 & 6200 calls.

On short side Nifty 5600PE OI has highest OI of 39.19 Lacs with addition of 8 Lacs. So as told initially again we are in small range unless things changed.

Now Resistance comes to 5725 - 5737 – 5754 and Supports comes to 5687 – 5670 - 5654.

Now trend remain buy on dips till 5654 is not broken out.

Opening again seems slightly on positive bias. Vix is fell down so be cautious.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Realty Sector
Is set to move big after expiry ahead of festive season. It seems good bet. DB Realty & Oberoi Realty.

Steel Sector
Steel seems under pressure. JSPL seems under pressure.

Infra Sector –
IRB and Reliance Infra will remain under pressure.

Power Sector
For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector
Bank will follow trend, and further show strength in later part.

IT Sector
Remain under pressure.

OPEN CALLS
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Bought @102 for TG 115 SL 83

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

Today’s MG Mantra
Its fresh series so just enjoy the first day. Vix is fell down which showing weakness as Nifty also seems in overbought zone. Watch for breakout of either 5654 or 5745.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.
2. Those who don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

26 comments:

  1. Dear MG Sir, On 26th Oct. 2012 market remains closed as today is Bakrid. Next trading day is on Monday (29th Oct. 2012)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. mcx will be holiday. for nse it is trading day.

      Delete
  2. As per NSE calendar it's holiday today, but not sure anything changed recently.

    http://www.nse-india.com/products/content/derivatives/irf/mrkt_timing_holidays.htm

    ReplyDelete
  3. GM All, lets open your terminal and see what happens. As per their calender Bakrid is on Sat. and that's its trading day.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Sir,
    What is the street expectation on the HUL results?.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hello sir ,
    nifty down but frontline counters strong waiting for RBI policy.
    Its , friday so one sided move .
    Keep eye on railway stocks , if congress minister appointed tomm then will rally on monday.
    PNB can be shorted but I will wait till results , if NPA increase then it may go down 7% .

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  6. sir, Whats your view on ICICI bank today?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Market may go around 5655 level

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hello to all members of MGBlogspot,was away for Dussehra holidays with family and away from market for a few days,Hope this expiry will bring good fortune to all of us and we wil have the blessings of Goddess Lakshmi!!!Happy trading!!!

    ReplyDelete
  9. PNB Q2 PAT Down - 1065 v/s 1205

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hello sir ,
    Yepee...
    Had position of PNB PE 760 (@12) exited at 24 . (100% returns)
    Options had high values of IV on PE .
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Replies
    1. IV is implied volatility.
      When you trade in options the IV reflect it an is included in price of that option .
      If IV is high then there is large buying at higher prices .
      IV indicates mainly the demand for that option.

      In option build up of PNB (before result) , the avg IV for calls was 26 where as for puts was 29 , so puts were in large demand .
      We can say many people knew its results and already build short positions.

      Delete
  12. Hi MG

    By looking at PNB result I shorted Bank of India @ 294..
    Also bought 300 PUT at 12.....will keep position open till Monday.

    BOI FUT us already at 287
    and 300 PUT trading 16+

    My target for BOI on Monday is 280-275

    What you say MG?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BOI PUT also has higher IV 30 vrs 25

      Delete
    2. I would prefer book profit around 284-85, though it can go down but may Nifty not.

      Delete
    3. Thanks MG!

      Closed Future short position at 286. will keep 300 call..

      Delete
  13. Thanks don, I understand it completely. Rgds

    ReplyDelete
  14. Here is the link where one can know about option prices as well as IV & OI -

    http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/option_chain/optionKeys.jsp?symbolCode=-10007&symbol=NIFTY&symbol=NIFTY&instrument=OPTIDX&date=-&segmentLink=17&segmentLink=17

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hello friends ,
    Remember when you trade in options look for its parameters -
    IV , volume , blulk deals, Open interest and change in open interest .
    Option data gives us clue of stock direction , But a single news or trigger decides its direction.

    Hello sir ,
    holding Rinfra .
    It seems history is repeated , all banks came down today felled in same manner in last quarter.
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi
      Can you explain how these factors helps to find stocks move

      Delete
    2. Hi,
      Option data tells us about huge positions build by traders , big bulls or insider traders .
      (See , China is becoming a no.1 economy on basis of COPING , so there is no harm in coping until you make profit.)
      Many auditors , brokers and operators already know results and make position accordingly , thus if you find such , then follow them as they do not blindly put their money.
      But you must analyses it carefully and decide entry and exit levels before trading.
      If , you want more info check the link given by MG in above post.

      Thank you.

      Delete
  16. HUL posted very BAD result today....Shorted Future at 552 will keep it for monday.

    ReplyDelete