Morning Bells (1 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Haar aur Jeet apani-apani soch par depend karti he – Maan lo to HAAR aur than lo to JEET.

A good news for MG blog follower and MG’s Billionaire Club members, On closing of March series, blog profit comes to 50,00/- against investment of 50-75K and for Billionaire Club, performance is rocking, made profit of 1,09,350/- against investment of 1L Rs. In short we have doubled our money in just three months, its awesome & rocking performance which I hadn’t seen anywhere else.

Yes I am happy and hope that many of you have made handsome profit. It also teach us a great lesson, i.e. if you have patience then you can win the market else you will lose in market.

So friends, once again buckle in and ready for next attack after long holidays. As we were discussing book closer, the effect of that we seen in last 15 minutes on Friday when most of stocks turned green from red and gained handsome. This again shows that how our operators are tricky, they put pressure on index throughout the day and when everybody was about to accept that fact that Mar series is going expire in RED they turned it GREEN. I remember some times back one person who was head of a investor firm had commented that “Unless Global market, Indian market is like a Monkey market” mean Indian market is not stable or don’t act on fundamentals, i.e. no matter company has good repo or what, but one need to switch its port folio in a reasonable time period.

Well, the Indian equity market ended with marginal gains snapping the two weeks losing streak. For the week the NSE Nifty and the BSE Sensex gained by 0.7% each. The NSE Nifty index found strong support at around the 200 Day moving average which is considered as critical support levels. On a year to date basis the Nifty has registered losses of 4.5%. However, the market has recorded gains of almost ~6% in the fiscal year.

After last week’s DMK drama, the Samajwadi Party (SP) came in the limelight this week after the SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav was seen very keen on his goal of making it bigger in the next elections. The SP leader signalled at pulling the plug soon on the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government according to reports.

Gainers –

ONGC (up 5.3%), HDFC (up 3.7%), HDFC Bank (up 3.3%), TCS (up 2.2%) and Hindalco (up 2.2%) were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

Hero Motocorp (down 7.1%), Reliance Infra (down 5.4%), Reliance Industries (down 4.7%), Tata Steel (down 2.8%) and Grasim Inds (down 2.7%) were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral Gainer/Losers –

IT – up 0.6%, Top gainers - HCL Tech (up 3.5%), Satyam Computer (up 3.3%), Sasken Communication (up 2.6%), TCS (up 2.2%) and Infosys (up 0.9%).

Bank Index – up 1.1%, top gainers Oriental Bank Of Commerce (up 4.4%), Bank Of India (up 3.4%), HDFC Bank (up 3.3%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 2.3%) and ICICI Bank (up 1.6%).

Metal – up 1.7%, topgainers, Bhuwalka Steel (up 18.7%), JSW Steel (up 8.7%), Jindal Stainless (up 2.4%), Sunflag Iron (up 1.8%) and Ispat Industries (up 1.2%).

Auto – Down 1.2%, top losers, Hero Motocorp (down 7.1%), Ashok Leyland (down 5%), Eicher Motors (down 5%), Maruti Suzuki (down 1.9%) and M&M (down 1.4%).

Oil & Gas – Down 1.7%, top losers, Shiv-Vani Oil (down 4.8%), Reliance Industries (down 4.7%), Gujarat NRE Coke (down 3.5%), Indian Oil Corp (down 2.9%) and Jindal Drilling (down 2.3%).

Realty – Down 1.4%, top losers, Peninsula Land (down 7.4%), Sobha Developers (down 7%), Ansal Props (down 2%), Unitech (down 1.9%) and HDIL (down 0.6%).

Domestic Front –

Q3 current A/C deficit widens to 6.7% v/s 5.4% in Q2 FY13 -

The pickup in capital flows was mainly due to foreign portfolio investment which rose to US$ 8.6 billion during Q3 of 2012-13 from US$ 1.8 billion in Q3 of previous year.

Preliminary data on India’s balance of payments (BoP) for the third quarter (October-December 2012) of the financial year 2012-13, are now available. The details of these data, as per the revised format of BoP presentation provided in IMF’s BPM6, are set out in Statement I. These data as per the old format are also given in Statement II.

Narendra Modi once again talking point –

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Sunday announced its new Parliamentary Board and as speculated, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was reinducted into the panel after a gap of six years.

Among the other new members, who were appointed in the board, were Varun Gandhi and Modi's close aide and former Gujarat home minister Amit Shah.

The appointment is a shot in the arm for Modi, who is expected to play a big role in the next Lok Sabha elections after his three years of consecutive victory in Gujarat polls. Shah's appointment, however, was opposed by a faction of the party.

Among the new Vice Presidents appointed in the board are - Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Smriti Irani and Prabhat Jha. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, however, did not find a place in BJP's Parliamentary Board.

Modi is the only Chief Minister who has been appointed in the board. Reacting to the development, party spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman said, "Both Narendra Modi and Shivraj Singh Chauhan are important leaders for BJP. It is not fair to pick one Chief Minister to the other."

Train fare hike –

Travelling in trains is set to become costlier from tomorrow as the hike in reservation fee and superfast charges announced in the Rail Budget come into effect from April 1.

Besides hike in passenger fares, freight rate for all commodities will also go up by about 5.7 percent on Monday.

The Railways expect to earn Rs 42,210 crore from passengers traffic and Rs 93,554 crore from goods transportation in 2013-14.

Global Front –

Global Market Outlook -

Most of the global markets which lost their way in recent weeks were seen bouncing back with the US markets among the top gainers. However, the worry globally is that Cyprus’s bank-restructuring plan may be used as a ‘template’ for other nations.

Cyprus Issue –

There seems to be no respite to Cyprus' woes. Fears of a bank run have prompted the government to impose tough controls which include limiting the number of withdrawals and banning cheques. This even as banks in the tiny island nation reopen for the first time in nearly two weeks.

Capital controls as imposed by the Central Bank of Cyprus will include a 300-euro daily limit on withdrawals. There will also be restrictions on transfers to accounts outside the country. A Finance Ministry statement said the controls will be in force for seven days.

Banks in Cyprus have been shut since March 16 after the European Union presented a plan forcing losses on all depositors in exchange for a bailout. The plan sparked off protest and led to its Parliament rejecting the same. The country then approached Russia in hopes of a bailout but met with rejection. With time running out, Cyprus had no option but to agree to the terms of the bailout.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Indian equities may see sluggish trading sentiment early this week following data that India's CAD touched a record high of 6.7 per cent in the October- December quarter, but the markets are expected to bounce back in view of the recent downtrend.

Sentiment is likely to be subdued as investors may react to the Current Account Deficit data that was made public by RBI in its report on Balance of Payments - released after market hours on Thursday, followed by long weekend because of Good Friday holiday.

Nifty 5700 mark will play a big role, it will act as physiological level and further buying interest will come only after that.

Note that –

1. Auto & Cement stock will start throwing monthly sales figure from Monday.

2. HSBC India manufacturing PMI for March will also be announced on Monday.

3. Performance of services sector will come out on Wednesday.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 3.67% and ended at 15.22 against previous close of 15.80.

FNO PCR is 0.84 against previous close 0.96.

Indian Rupee – Rupee weakened by 10 paisa and was trading at 54.28 against its previous close of 54.18.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1569.19 up 6.34 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Fresh series, fresh start, taking cues from March series, current outlook Nifty range is 5550 on downside while upside is 5975.

Intraday Resistance – 5803 – 5748 – 5715 and Support – 5617 – 5572 – 5539 (Pivot 5660)

Opening – Seems a bit negative, a small gap-up as global market is up in sync with US and also monthly sales figure will start kick off from Monday.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Auto & Cement to throw monthly sales figure from Monday –

Auto and cement stocks will be in focus as companies from these two sectors unveil monthly sales data for March from Monday.

LIC – Govt - SAIL –

LIC again delivers for Govt. yet again, bails SAIL OFS.

The success of Steel Authority of India's offer for sale on March 22 brought huge relief to the government. It also was the last state-run entity to be divested in FY13.

The government initially planned to offload its 10.82% stake in SAIL but trimmed it down to 5.82% on poor market conditions. The stock has been decline ever since the government announced its intention to divest stake. The floor price for the auction was set at Rs 63 apiece. The issue was over-subscribed at an indicative bid price of Rs 63.07 per share, thus helping the government mop up Rs 1,521 crore.

Earlier this month, the government auctioned its 5% stake in National Aluminium. It also had an option to retain an equal number in case of over-subscription. It finally raised about Rs 628 crore by selling 6% stake in the company.

The government has raised over Rs. 238bn by selling part of its stake in PSUs like NTPC, Oil India, NMDC, Nalco and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers in FY13. For FY14, the government aims to raise Rs 400bn.

IT Sector –

Worldwide IT spending is projected to total $3.8 trn in 2013, a 4.1 percent increase from 2012 spending of $3.6 trn, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc. Currency effects are less pronounced this quarter with growth in constant dollars forecast at 4 percent for 2013.

The Gartner Worldwide IT Spending Forecast is the leading indicator of major technology trends across the hardware, software, IT services and telecom markets. For more than a decade, global IT and business executives have been using these highly anticipated quarterly reports to recognize market opportunities and challenges, and base their critical business decisions on proven methodologies rather than guesswork.

TCS –

Tata Consultancy Services, a leading IT services, consulting and business solutions firm, announced that it has been positioned as a Leader in Sustainable Technology Services by specialist energy, environment and sustainability analyst firm Verdantix.

According to Verdantix’s report, Green Quadrant: Sustainable Technology Services (Global), 2013, TCS is ranked as a Leader as a result of the company’s expertise in manufacturing plant energy systems, renewable energy systems, residential smart meters, and data center energy management.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DLF Apr 250CE @3.75 (1Lot),  Updated SL 4.25 TG 6+

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +00

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= +00

Today’s MG Mantra –

New series, so just wait and watch, how market turns.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

One can join me on FB, just search MudraGuru in FB, you will find me there in top list.

After FB page started, I am receiving so many joining request, but as told you all repeatedly I am on FB only for blog readers and followers, secondly past experience wasn’t good in popular forums and pages like FB, so this time a bit cautious and will accept joining request only when, when one will send a separate message on FB saying “I am blog reader / follower”, because this will ensure that you know me and you are not unknown person who just sending me joining request to steal info of my FB group.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.