Tuesday, 2 April 2013

Morning Bells (2 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Haar aur Jeet apani-apani soch par depend karti he – Maan lo to HAAR aur than lo to JEET.

Market started the financial year on a positive note with the NSE Nifty managing to close above the 5700 mark. After hitting an intra-day high of 5720 in early trades, the Nifty index constantly declined for the entire first half. Markets fell after the Eight core industries registered a growth rate of (-) 2.5% in February compared to their 7.7% growth in February 2012. The decline in growth in February 2013 was on account of negative growth witnessed in Electricity generation and in the production of Crude Oil, Coal, Natural Gas and Fertilizers.

However, the benchmark indices rebounded amid some buying momentum witnessed in the Realty, Capital Goods, power and the Healthcare stocks. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap index were the top performers with both the indices adding 1.2% and 2.3% respectively.

Markets lacked international cues as the U.S. stock were markets shut on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, while markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong were closed Monday for the Easter holiday.

The Eight core industries have a combined weight of 37.90 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The combined Index was 144.4 in February 2013 with a growth rate of (-) 2.5% compared to their 7.7% growth in February 2012.

Hinduja group promoted IndusInd Bank and the state miner NMDC today replaced IT major Wipro and Siemens in the 50 share benchmark Nifty index of National Stock Exchange (NSE).

The decision to replace Wipro and Siemens with IndusInd and NMDC was taken as part of periodic index review by India Index Services & Products Ltd, an NSE-Crisil joint venture.

IndusInd Bank and the state miner NMDC fared mixed on the first day of their inclusion in Nifty index on Monday.

Gainers –
DLF, Cairn, reliance Infra, Dr Reddy’s Labs, JP Associates, Ranbaxy, BHEL and Indus Ind Bank were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –
Sesa Goa, Tata Motors, Jindal Steel, Bajaj Auto, TCS, NMDC, Coal India and Tata Power were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Domestic Front –
Supreme Court rejects Novatris’ Patent Plea -
The Supreme Court has rejected Novartis' Glivec patent plea. Upholding the Tribunal, Patent body order on the cancer treatment drug; it said the drug is not eligible for patent in India.

Novartis will also have to pay cost for filing the case. The company had argued that the molecule imatinib, on which Glivec is based, required years of research and modification to make it an effective, safe leukemia treatment. The drug is Novartis' top seller clocking in sales of $4.7 billion last year.

Petrol Prices cut by 85 paisa -
Prices of petrol were decreased by Rs.2.00/litre (excl VAT) w.e.f 16th March'13. Since last price change the International prices of petrol have gone down from USD 122.74/ bbl to USD 119.23/ bbl. INR-USD exchange rate has also declined marginally from Rs. 54.40 to Rs. 54.28 during the same period. 

Global Front –
Global Market Outlook -
Most of the global markets which lost their way in recent weeks were seen bouncing back with the US markets among the top gainers. However, the worry globally is that Cyprus’s bank-restructuring plan may be used as a ‘template’ for other nations.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
Indian equities may see sluggish trading sentiment early this week following data that India's CAD touched a record high of 6.7 per cent in the October- December quarter, but the markets are expected to bounce back in view of the recent downtrend.

Sentiment is likely to be subdued as investors may react to the Current Account Deficit data that was made public by RBI in its report on Balance of Payments - released after market hours on Thursday, followed by long weekend because of Good Friday holiday.

Nifty 5700 mark will play a big role, it will act as physiological level and further buying interest will come only after that.

Note that –

1. Auto & Cement stock will start throwing monthly sales figure from Monday.

2. Performance of services sector will come out on Wednesday.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.37% and ended at 14.85 against previous close of 15.22.
FNO PCR is 0.96 against previous close 0.84.

Indian Rupee – Rupee was trading at 54.28 against its previous close of 54.28.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1562.26 down 6.93 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Fresh series, fresh start, taking cues from March series, current outlook Nifty range is 5550 on downside while upside is 5975.

Intraday Resistance – 5769 – 5745 – 5724 and Support – 5679 – 5655 – 5634 (Pivot 5700)

Opening – Seems a bit negative, as factory output was dismissal and global market seems under pressure.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Auto & Cement to throw monthly sales figure from Monday –
Auto and cement stocks will be in focus as companies from these two sectors unveil monthly sales data for March from Monday.

M&M –
M&M announced a 17% growth in its auto sales numbers for the Financial Year 2012-13, with a sales figure of 563373 units as against 483164 units in FY 2011-12.

Shares of M&M ended lower by 0.8% to close at Rs855.

Polaris –
Polaris stock surged by 4.1% after reports came out that the Chennai based IT company in a bid to sell its services business has reportedly reached out to Wipro and L&T to check their interest in same.

Sterlite –
Shares of Sterlite Industries fell by 4.6% after a copper smelter unit in Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu was ordered shut by the state pollution regulator, the company said on Monday. The company would co-ordinate with the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board to explain its position on the emissions.

L&T has secured an order valued at  Rs. 56.89bn from the Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd for setting up a 2 x 660 MW Supercritical Thermal Power Project on a complete EPC  – Engineering Procurement & Construction – basis.

The order involves design, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of two coal-fired thermal units of 660 MW each with supercritical parameters at Chhabra in Baran District in Rajasthan.

Tata Motors-
Tata Motors’ total sales (including exports) of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles in March 2013 were 72,712 vehicles. The company’s domestic sales of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles for March 2013 were 69,160 nos.

Cumulative sales (including exports) for the company for the fiscal were 810,086 nos.

Digitization –
The move from analog to digistiation is set to usher in transparency by enabling fair distribution of pay revenue and better monetisation of content. In the last one year, stocks operating in the broadcast distribution space had seen huge gains on hopes of a step-jump in revenue of multi-system operators.

But should you invest now? In a research report on March 20, IIFL Institutional Equities has advised caution on companies operating in the broadcast distribution space due to the rich valuations.

TVS Motors-
TVS Motor Company recorded total sales of 167,583 units in March 2013 against 182,527 units registered in March 2012.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DLF Apr 250CE @3.75 (1Lot),  Updated SL 4.25 TG 6+
(Booked profit @7.5, bought 3.75 = +3750)

Balram Chini @44.8 TG 47 SL 43.5 (qty 1K)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)
(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +3750
(Booked profit in DLF call)

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= +3750
(Booked profit in DLF call)

Today’s MG Mantra
New series, so just wait and watch, how market turns.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

One can join me on FB, just search MudraGuru in FB, you will find me there in top list.

After FB page started, I am receiving so many joining request, but as told you all repeatedly I am on FB only for blog readers and followers, secondly past experience wasn’t good in popular forums and pages like FB, so this time a bit cautious and will accept joining request only when, when one will send a separate message on FB saying “I am blog reader / follower”, because this will ensure that you know me and you are not unknown person who just sending me joining request to steal info of my FB group.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.


  1. MG Sir,

    I have sent you equest on FB. Please add me to yr followers list.

  2. GM Friends - this is the month of corporate earning data, due to sluggish economy and demand slump one can not expect any cheerful event, so investors would remain cautious and I would also suggest to go for cautious approach.

    However - month would be stock specific, but if most of stock will not perform then it would put pressure on index to.

  3. Nifty has resistance @5714-15, so this level should be watched closely, breaching the level will lead mild upmove. Read weekly range at MBells.

  4. Buy HPCL 300CE @4.25 SL 3.25 TG 5+

  5. Balram chini - book part profit (50%) @46.5 bought 44.8 (qty 1K)

  6. Sir
    I dont know,where all these people have gone? No one is posting.
    Sir, It is very difficult to maintain 2 accounts simultaneously.Doing hardwork during market hours and after.
    Thank you very much sir

    1. Dear Madhu - most of you have joined me on facebook, and many more request are pending, just waiting from them to send me a confirmation message. So definitely, blog readers will be reduced.

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