Morning Bells (4 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Good Results are generated at the END of the day, only if – Good Thoughts are generated at the beginning of the day.

Heavy sell off in scrips across sectors saw the Indian equity market ending with losses on Wednesday bringing a four-day winning streak to a temporary halt.

he fall in the market coincided with statements coming from senior BJP leader LK Advani who said it was possible that Lok Sabha polls would happen in 2013. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav again accused the UPA government of using the CBI in their favour. The SP leader was quoted as saying, “Is it easy to fight the Congress? Government has thousands of hands…it can use the CBI…send to jail,” Singh said.

Today’s decline was led by the interest rate sensitive stocks like the Realty, Banking and the Auto stocks, followed by Capital Goods, Metals and the Oil & Gas stocks.

Gainers –

Sun Pharma, Tata Power, NTPC and ITC were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

RIL, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, ONGC, Sesa Goa, Coal India and HDFC were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Hero MotoCorp hit 52 week low today.

Sactoral –

Only the S&P BSE Pharma index ended with marginal gains. Even the S&P BSE Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap index which outperformed the benchmark indices came under pressure.

Domestic Front –

Keep eye on political development, right now I don’t see any harm to Govt. y’day was just a false cue to which bears take advantage.

Global Front –

The European stock markets slipped on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of key events later in the week, such as central bank meetings and U.S. employment data.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now don’t take this fall as granted, I guess Nifty either go for range bound or can gain mild upmove after such a steep downfall, specially 5 continuous day (except Tuesday). For all longs one can keep 5630-25 as SL.

Note that –

1. Auto & Cement stock will start throwing monthly sales figure from Monday.

2. Performance of services sector will come out on Wednesday.

The INDIA VIX on NSE surged 5% and ended at 14.87 against previous close of 14.10.

FNO PCR is 0.90 against previous close 0.96.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 17 paisa and was trading at 54.43 against its previous close of 54.26.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1557.98 down 12.27 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Fresh series, fresh start, taking cues from March series, current outlook Nifty range is 5550 on downside while upside is 5975. Now 5630 can act as strong support while & 5850 will act as stiff resistance.

Intraday Resistance – 5823 – 5784 – 5728 and Support – 5633 – 5593 – 5538 (Pivot 5689)

Opening –again seems a bit negative, but sooner or later market may see some recovery, if 5630 broken then 5550 is the next stop where one can expect some relief.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

CERC –

CERC could boost the power sector, PSU banks and power-finance companies.

Satyam Computer –

The stocks after rallying 26 percent in the first two-three months of this year, started to correct quite violently over last three-four days.

There has been bad news for both Mahindra Satyam and Tech Mahindra in the last two weeks. First was the news of the merger getting delayed because of two pending cases that are still to be resolved in the Andhra Pradesh High Court (APHC). However, in the last two days these two stocks were down more than 7 percent.

Second, there was news that CP Gurnani, Managing Director (MD) of Tech Mahindra and the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Mahindra Satyam had sold 1.46 lakh shares in the open market between March 26 and March 28, totally amounting to Rs 15.5 crore.

Usually Mahindra Satyam has been coming out with very strong set of numbers and that used to result in Tech Mahindra posting good financial set of numbers.

Digitization –

Deadline for digitization increased by 15 days.

The move from analog to digistiation is set to usher in transparency by enabling fair distribution of pay revenue and better monetisation of content. In the last one year, stocks operating in the broadcast distribution space had seen huge gains on hopes of a step-jump in revenue of multi-system operators.

But should you invest now? In a research report on March 20, IIFL Institutional Equities has advised caution on companies operating in the broadcast distribution space due to the rich valuations.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

HPCL 300CE @4.25 TG 6+ SL 3.25

(SL hit, loss 1K)

However I am confident that HPCL will bounce back shortly and will cross 295+ mark shortly.

Bajaj Auto 1800CE @22 TG 32+ SL 15 (2 Lots)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

(SL hit @119 for balance 50%, we booked good profit, call closed)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +3750 + 2150 (profit in Balram Chini) = +5900

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= +3750 (profit in Balram Chini) = +5900

Today’s MG Mantra –

Play only for short to very short term with cautious approach.

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After FB page started, I am receiving so many joining request, but as told you all repeatedly I am on FB only for blog readers and followers, secondly past experience wasn’t good in popular forums and pages like FB, so this time a bit cautious and will accept joining request only when, when one will send a separate message on FB saying “I am blog reader / follower”, because this will ensure that you know me and you are not unknown person who just sending me joining request to steal info of my FB group.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.