Morning Bells (26 Sept 12)

Good Morning Friends,

Fuel hike – 1 lt. Petrol & 1 Beer can – same rate – ab chahe Ghoom lo ya fir Jhoom lo J

Well, as told y’day that Govt. has just announced reforms & policy measures but now it needs to implement to sustain the market sentiment. Now many experts are also feeling this. Now most of them are saying – Govt. needs to implement reforms for the domestic sector for any substantial improvement in the economy.  

So in short now it needs to implementation to make the market move any further from here. So, I guess that right now the market is probably near the top of the range.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

We are just one day back from expiry, from last 2 sessions neither bull getting success to close above 5700 mark nor bears getting success to close below 5650 mark. So many experts are confused and opting wait and watch policy for a move either side.

Nifty showing weakness and FII too not participating much, so may be bears can try to take advantage, but most probably we can have range bound session at least first half too today.

NIFTY –

PCR come to 0.99 while India Vix fallen down to 17.11. 5800 CE has highest open interest of 89 lac shares with fresh addition of 13 lac shares. Huge unwinding seen in 5500 PE while 5600 PE has highest OI on put side.

So Resistance has come to Resistance 5700-5720- 5739 and Supports has come 5646 – 5626 – 5600 - 5585. So close below 5585 will favour bears. And any close above 5740 will extend current rally to 100 points.

Opening seems mildly negative ahead of expiry pressure. First half seems range bound and under pressure, any break out of Nifty level will put pressure for further downside. So would suggest to go for cautious approach and book at least part profit in your longs.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Brent crude oil –

Had suggested to weakness in Oil sectors companies and specially suggested on blog board for Cairn, which fell down more than 3%, while Oil India remain stable. Hope you would have booked some profit.

Power Sector – Govt. has announced bailout package for power sector, plan seems flawless but now politician need to implement. Many experts says - "The package will become fruitful only if SEBs (state electricity boards) improve their financial performance, going forward, especially via tariff hikes and Transmission & Distribution loss reduction. In the short-term, the overhang on asset quality of banks due to SEB's large quantum may abate," Kajal Gandhi, Vasant Lohiya and Jaymin Trivedi, banking analysts from ICICI Securities, said in a research report. (report Money’Control.com)

FDI in Aviation –

KFA continued with gaining session. Y’day Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has also given a clean chit to Kingfisher Airlines in its safety audit. According to the report, the aviation regulator has not found any safety lapse by KFA.

CoalGate –

Had suggested JSPL weakness after CBI probe to Naveen Jindal compaly. Had also posted message on blog board and hope you would have booked profit through short. Still there could be chance, please keep eye in morning trade.

Banks – RBI Governor D Subbarao y’da said inflation rate is still at unacceptable levels and efforts should be made to rein in prices further to provide relief, especially, to poor people. Statement could be a breaker to current run in banking stocks.

IT – IT sector can have good run up if recommendation recommended by a high-level panel appointed by PM and chaired by former CBDT chairman N Rangachary for liberal tax regime for the IT sector. However, it remains to be seen when it would be made public and when the finance ministry would actually accept these recommendations. (Source CNBC-TV18)

OPEN CALLS –

Cox&Kings – Please close call today at comfortable level.

Nifty 5700 PE - Had suggested for risk takers to buy around 28 (2 lot) for small gains but we hadn't closed that position y'day. TG - will announce SL - Risk takers (NS 5740)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Nothing wrong in book part profit ahead of uncertainty because in short now reform needs implementation to make the market move any further from here. So, I guess that right now the market is probably near the top of the range.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.