Morning Bells (28 Sept 12)

Good Morning Friends and welcome to Oct. series, month of corporate earnings,

A Bird asked a Bee, you work so hard to get honey and people steal it, don’t you feel sad? Bee replied politely – No! because they can never steal my art of making honey.

Finally Sept. series ended as per our expectation, even if some of you would have noticed, our poll results was also favoring that Nifty wont reach 5750 before expiry.

So once again, fresh start and again market is set to react sharply on announcement. October series is full of promises and various actions globally. This is also month of corporate earnings so market will remain full of thrill.

So Nifty stuck in a narrow range in continuation on 4^th day and finally Nifty closed below 5650. But once again market is ready to move up as Supreme Court has given relief to Govt. The Supreme Court on Monday clarified in response to a Presidential Reference by the government that all natural resources did not have to be allocated through a public bidding process and that public good was more important than revenue maximization. BJP has clarified that Govt. need not to consider it for Coal scam, the verdict was on 2G scam.

Well whatever the verdict it is, This comes as a big relief for the government, which had come under fire from the media and opposition parties for allocating coal blocks for free and now it’s going to relief few big stocks and they can surge today because the clarification essentially means that it is not compulsory for the government to allocate all natural resources through a public auction process. The government can choose which resources it wants to auction. Now you can think what can be done in future with natural resources.

On Global front problems persist with regard to the Euro Zone debt crisis amid fears that Spain is likely to be the next regional nation to seek a full bailout. Greece is struggling to convince international lenders about its seriousness in dealing with spiralling budget deficit.

Another major lookout is China; China too is under tremendous pressure. Chinese shares fell to their lowest level in more than 43 months on Wednesday amid worries about the health of the world's second largest economy. China’s economic growth is likely to slow for the ninth consecutive quarter in July-September, China’s economic data for August has turned out to be worse than expected and the economy’s prospects remain gloomy.

So next stimulus could be from China, Markets are now focusing on whether China will inject more stimulus by way of more infrastructure spending or a rate cut.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As suggested 3 times before expiry, y’day Sept series expired in expected range of 5650-5700. So if this in line then probably we is going to remain in 200 pts range in Oct. First attempt could be 5720-5740 and if something comes boosting then we can head 5850 else market can take back from this range to test below 5600 mark even 5550-5500. So development in upcoming days will confirm the mood of market. But as far as I see it’s a around 200 pts series.

So lets start with fresh series and see what store in Oct. series.

NIFTY –

Resistance 5682 – 5714 - 5736 and Supports 5628 – 5606 - 5574. Close below 5574 will favour bears in near term. And any close above 5740 will extend current rally to 100 points.

Opening seems positive but don’t fall under temptation, now we need to watch and lets first market to decide its move.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

KFA – failed to assure its lenders with any 'concrete' solution for restructuring of debt in a meeting held on Thursday in Bangalore. The consortium of banks now decided to hold a meeting by the end of October. Company has total loans of around Rs 7,000 crore.

CoalGate – CBI today started probe against 24 companies and public officials in connection with alleged irregularities in coal block allocations between 1993 and 2004, including during the NDA regime. Now this game going to be interesting, so keep close eye on development, could be a good gain if you closely watch development in CBI probe.

Banks – Banks are on the move.

IT – Investors are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems under pressure.

PFC - Keep eye on PFC, its moves so fast and was under consolidation for 2 days. It can again move to 200 lvls.

OPEN CALLS –

So right I don’t have any open call today. New calls from today or from Monday.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Enjoy, Relax and plan your next move carefully. Small gains is the Mantra for first week of fresh series.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.