Morning Bells (29 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

“Stock Market Tribute to Bhattiji – Teacher asked to student – where is the capital of India??????? (reply before read next) Bhatti Saheb replied politely – In Swiss bank sir!...”

Finally new series started on negative note, Nifty ended 41 points down amid weakness in the global markets, had told during market hours that Nifty will test 5654 mark which was the strong resistance but finally we managed to close above that. Football match is still continued i.e. the movement of a day up, a day down.

On Friday Consumer Durables index was the top loser.

                                                                                                                                                      

First biggest news came on political front in the form of cabinet reshuffle. The important about this cabinet reshuffle is in the Council of Ministers is evident with several leaders who are in favour of more economic reforms now a part of his new core team. The PM has given young faces a chance to prove their mettle. But Salman Khurshid despite corruption allegations has been made the Eternal Affairs Minister.

S Jaipal Reddy has been out of Petroleum Ministry and given the low-profile Science & Technology and Earth Sciences portfolio. Kapil Sibal, too, has been downgraded and now only the Minister of Communications and Information Technology while Minister of Health and Family Welfare Ghulam Nabi Azad's desire for a high profile portfolio has been ignored. (Reports - MoneyControl.com)

Another sign of relief has come from market regulator Sebi, Sebi has advocated more reform to protect investors, it has said it plans to undertake several reforms to develop equity culture in the country, but will not allow companies to raise funds through IPOs if their intentions are unclear and investors' interest is compromised.

FII were net buyers of 12,006 crore (USD 2.3 billion) from October 1-25, FIIs were gross buyers of shares worth Rs 47,443 crore and sold equities amounting to Rs 35,437 crore, so net inflow of Rs 12,006 crore as per data available with Sebi.

Sesa Goa has posted total Income is Rs. 3086.30 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 whereas the same was at Rs. 8401.20 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

Don’t have much to say as most of time happens with Friday we started with 41 points down. Cabinet reshuffle has given hopes for more steps to strengthen the economy growth and market will cheer the reshuffle but not that much to earlier announcement. Investors will remain cautious ahead of US Prez election on Nov. 6.

At a time when unemployment is a major issue in the US due to its poor economic status, Indian companies through its massive investments in America have created 50,000 jobs in the country, a top US diplomat said. (MoneyControl.com)

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Well market breath is in favour of bulls today but volatility would be part of today ahead of RBI policy review meet tomorrow. Buying momentum will gain after US Pres election as big investor may remain sideline or cautious due to Prez election.

Market will await today BHEL Nos. & RBI Macro-Economy report after market hours. Tomorrow RBI monitory policy review decision at 11.00AM and on Wednesday Fiscal Deficit Data & Infrastructure Output Data.

The INDIA VIX on NSE up 5% to end at 14.21 and F&O PCR is 0.91.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Oct-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	35634	1014.04	48580	1367.01	400910	9951.76	-352.97
INDEX OPTIONS	381226	10681.45	307458	8725.26	1428098	40462.50	1956.19
STOCK FUTURES	37452	1031.37	39830	1081.44	1039257	27803.01	-50.07
STOCK OPTIONS	44969	1273.31	42113	1204.27	32491	936.51	69.04

FII data shows FII went short in Index future while they went long in Index Options. They shorted Stock futures and went long in Stock options. We are still in 5640-5725 range and still we need to watch for breakout or breakdown. As told many times buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels while on downside we have 2 strong supports 5630 & 5585, breakout of these support will lead Nifty to fill gaps and can drag Nifty below 5500 Mark.

On long side Nifty 5900CE has highest OI of 37.86 Lac with fresh addition of 6.55 Lac, 6000CE has second highest OI of 36.93 Lacs with addition of 8 Lacs.

On short side Nifty 5600PE OI has highest OI of 40.62 Lacs with addition of 1.98 Lacs while 5700PE has second highest OI of 35.93 Lacs with addition of 6.69 Lacs.

One point of worry which can’t be ignored is huge addition of 11.13 Lac in OI to 5400PE.

Resistance comes to 5693 - 5723 – 5749 and Supports comes to 5638 – 5612 -        5582.

Opening again seems slightly on positive bias.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Realty Sector –

Can show strength ahead of festive seasons, keep eye on DB Realty & Oberoi Realty.

Steel Sector –

Steel sector can show strength.

Infra Sector –

All eye will be on Infra sector after cabinet reshuffle.

Power Sector –

All eye will also be on Power sector after cabinet reshuffle.

Banks Sector –

After disappointing results of few banks and RBI said that it may restructure the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) banks will remain under pressure.

IT Sector –

Will remain indecisive.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Bought @102 for TG 115 SL 83

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t get excited its time to remain cautious. Make only small positions and don’t hesitate to book small profits. Nifty also seems in overbought zone. Watch for breakout of either 5630 or 5745.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.