Friday, 2 November 2012

Morning Bells (2 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.


Even a small dot can stop a big sentence but few dots can give continuity, amazing but true. Every ending can be a new beginning.

So finally it was yet another day of consolidation for the market as Nifty kept drifting in the range of 5600-5650. Y’day’s gain was mainly due to Consumer Durables which was up by 5.26%, followed by Auto sector up 2.26%., auto stocks surged as sales accelerated ahead of festive seasons. Realty and Power were also up by more than a percent while FMCG witnessed profit-booking and was down by about a percent.

A minor improvement in the manufacturing growth data also boosted the positive sentiment. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) a measure of factory production stood at 52.9 in October slightly up from September, when it was 52.8.

The Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) on the 2G auction headed by Kapil Sibal met on Thursday and decided to go for partial refarming, wherein operators will be allowed to retain 2.5 MHz through an administrative allotment by paying an auction-determined price. Bharti Airtel, Idea and Vodafone will get advantage with this announcement. These companies will have an opportunity to retain 2.5 MHz of spectrum at the time of refarming in the 900 MHz spectrum. If they do not want to pay a market-determined price, they may choose to surrender the entire spectrum. But, as far as the government is concerned, it is going to give an option to these telecom companies. (MoneyControl.com)

In a cabinet meet PM Mr. Singh told to cabinet for more promising output out of poor situation. He’d told “We are working against the political calendar, but we should not lose sight of the fact that we are also involved in the task of nation-building”

In a recent development in Spain, market regulator said on Thursday that it would extend the ban on short selling of all stocks on Spanish exchanges by an additional three months. The regulator had banned short selling of all stocks back in July in the wake of increased market volatility.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Well, as suggested in MBells market opened weak y’day but was showing strength and then corporate earning no.s boosted the sentiment and later PMI. The way market is consolidating since long seems now players looking for some ground reality on reform announcement.

Now next step lies in the winter session of Parliament. Though there are many reforms that have been announced and they don’t need Parliament’s approval, there are also many things that can be done outside Parliament in terms of execution on the ground. Now market have heard announcement and is worried about the lack of investments which is slow down, so one needs to see physical activity happening on ground for that to pick up

The INDIA VIX on NSE end at 14.40 and F&O PCR is 0.93.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 1 Nov 2012


BUY
SELL
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
Difference

No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores

INDEX FUTURES
37500
1028.13
28842
794.98
371958
9119.92
233.15
INDEX OPTIONS
301294
8397.32
263811
7403.04
1656875
46769.33
994.28
STOCK FUTURES
44101
1189.57
39481
1080.05
1058059
28369.12
109.51
STOCK OPTIONS
32570
882.25
34981
957.12
58188
1623.14
-74.86

Data shows that OI has decreased and Nifty is up, so FII have done profit booking in Nifty & Bank Nifty Futures at higher levels. So data shows bullishness but movement still shows weakness, may due to fear of Friday or of US Prez election.

We need to play safe today and try to book at least partial profit in your positions as nothing harm in exit and re-enter.

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty Derivatives Statics as on 1 Nov 2012 (Key Facts)
Strike
OI
Change in OI
IV
Strike
OI
Change in OI
IV
Longs created
Shorts created
5700-CE
52,91,600
21,550
11.63
5300-PE
60,56,550
7,51,350
16.56
5800-CE
51,66,450
47,200
11.54
5400-PE
47,64,650
55,150
15.4
5900-CE
60,54,150
1,60,850
11.51
5500-PE
49,51,800
2,19,950
14.47
6000-CE
47,60,400
-2,97,800
11.82
5600-PE
56,99,600
4,72,600
13.74

Y’day OI on long side was very low and only 5.5 Lacs contracts added to key options. While it was a 3rd day when above 7 lac addition to 5300PE has been seen. Approx 15 Lac fresh addition to key puts has been seen which is indicating weakness in coming days.

Resistance comes to 5662 - 5680 – 5710 and Supports comes to 5615 – 5585 - 5565. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5580 & 5530. So if 5530 broken Nifty will go for gap filling and we will see Nifty below 5500 Mark while buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Opening seems on positive bias.

OPEN CALLS
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals (New call) - @110 for Updated TG 122+ SL 106

ICICI 1150CE - @7.25 (Average price) for TG 20+ SL (NA – Hero to Zero)

Today’s MG Mantra
Its Friday and then US Prez election on Tuesday, if get lucky then we may have space to settle position on Monday, so never try luck against the sentiment.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

36 comments:

  1. Hello Sir,

    I am back after a long vacation. How are you doing? Hope you made good profit and helping others with your noble cause :)

    Take care,
    Badal

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Badal, I am missing all of you who are still busy.

      Delete
  2. sgx nifty is up 42 points...today nifty could hit 40 points upward direction...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. am bullish on wipro,titan and yes bank.

      Delete
  3. Good Morning Sir my query is regarding Omkar Chemicals...on 1 st nov MB you told us 118+ is Omkar's target ... and today you have updated it as 122+....so if tomorrow it moves around 119-120 level , then should/can I book part profit(m holding 100 @ 112) or should I wait with the whole lot for breaching 122??
    Thanks Sir...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Arka - updated means its new TG, so once it reaches 120 keep order to sell at 122, dont disclose your full qty. Though I guess it may have upmove in coming days.

      Delete
  4. Also try (only intraday) -
    Bharati Airtel - 282 for 287+
    Tata Communication - 248 for TG 253+

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hello sir ,
    exited hero up 2%,
    Holding crompton puts , results are not good , and can come down 6% , will make fresh short only after result as lot size is 4000 .
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Don for which Crompton you are talking about, I am tracking CromptonGreves for long i.e. from 140 and lot size is 2000

      Delete
    2. Yes , its crompton greves
      sir I had 2 lots so mistaked it as 4000 quantity ,it at 124.80 now .

      Delete
  6. bajaj auto seems attractive @1895 for 1910...

    ReplyDelete
  7. Market Update - Today market remain up and most probably it wont be a regular Friday. Even Market seems up in First half of Monday. Monday second half & Tuesday will remain choppy ahead of US Prez election and thereafter it will depend on the result of US Prez polls. So plan your positions accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
  8. buy Infy 2450CE @30 TG 40+ SL 22

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Mudraji,

    Can we buy KTKBANK at current level?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its sustaining only with 2 reason - first banks are on move due to festive season & CRR cut, secondly there's rumors (or may be reality)about merger with ICICI, so a bit risky, times being max 152.

      Delete
  10. hello MG,
    i was holding tcs shares @1315
    Exited @1335
    Ur valuable suggestion is expected.
    Regards...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You had to asked it before decision. To my view it will touch 1400.

      Delete
    2. Actually this is my 1st conversion with u sir, so i was a bit hesitatve...
      Now what should i do?
      Should i re enter?

      Delete
    3. since u have already exited now look after Tuesday, read mkt view.

      Never hesitate and tell ur other friends too, its OUR place and no MY PLACE. I am just a moderator who take care only for wrong doings.

      If you found any good call info plz share with all. Like Don & Yash is sharing.

      Delete
    4. Sure sir,
      U r truely an asset to this place. God bless u.. :-)

      Delete
  11. Fine Mudraji Thanks for the details.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Mudraji,

    Any thoughts on RelCapital?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Bharati is going down, if u have bought (today's opening price was around 278) then exit with 2Rs Loss and Book 2Rs profit in Tata Comm. - NPNL position.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hello sir ,
    looks like people are booking profit before weekend.
    Still waiting for crompton to perform , also shorted ft .
    Sir , you told make long position in infy call , so can I prefer a future lot . As there will be volitilty dur to us elections as told by you (if obama mkt down & if romney mkt up)
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes but most of people cant handle pressure of futures, even sometimes we need to book loss too. so its OLD is GOLD style not to take risk above 5K which is manageable in case of wrong direction. Remember we loose 10K profit in Axis due to presure.

      Delete
  15. APOLLOTYRE was a bear trap today ..... triggered my sl .

    ReplyDelete
  16. Yes avoid fresh buying in AT till next indication

    ReplyDelete
  17. Buy DB Realty around/below 102 for TG 115+ SL 94

    ReplyDelete
  18. HI MG what is the expexted time period for DB call?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Prasadji, we are missing you, DB can take 1 to 2 week time.

      Delete
    2. Sorry MG had problem with internet for a few days,was not able to come online!!!

      Delete
  19. Hi MG whats ur opinion on Dish TV at CMP of 74 for a target of 90!!!With digitisation enforced in metros,i think its ARPU will rise steadily QOQ!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Direct Media Soln pvt considering to acquire 13.2% shares in Dish TV at an average price of Rs 76.05/sh - Proposed date of acquisition 8th November or within 90 days thereafter. 13.2% represent over 14 Cr outstanding shares.

      So probably will hover around buying level till deal is not get done.

      Delete
  20. Hi MG,

    Can I buy TATAM on Monday...result is on 7th Nov.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi MG sir,

      I am not a day-trader but keep watching our morning bells on daily basis. We get a lot of confidence from this. Keep it up sir.

      Also i woulld like to say that we have got a new-talent and his name is DONALIBAG. Hats-off to you Don sir. Keep doing this fantabulous job. Your hero, pnb calls were superb. I hope crompton call will be successful too.

      Delete
  21. Hi , Selva Raj
    First thank you for comments .

    Yes , MG Sir , is doing a very good work.

    See , I don't give any calls , but disclose what I trade and make position. So , its up to your knowledge to choose which trade you think best and make position as some times few trades go wrong.
    I am continuously learning new thing through this.

    Regarding Crompton Greves , result announced late evening were weak and it can be expected that it will open down on Monday. I too hold crompton PUTS of 110 strike . Lets see what happens on Monday.

    Yes , MBells have increased my profit making capability.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete