Morning Bells (30 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

“Never get discouraged, when your first few attempts fails, its often the last key in the bunch that opens the lock.”

As guessed the game is still ON, after a 41 point down on Friday and Nifty ended flat y'day. Once again Nifty is trading in narrow range or can say investors are sideline ahead of RBI policy meet and US Prez election. Weakness in Asian and in EU markets also dampened the sentiment.

Realty index declined by 0.8%, Capital Goods index was top looser and lost 1.7%. Oil & Gas was up 0.6%, BHEL fell sharply by 6.5% to Rs226. 

Y’day The Reserve Bank of India has released the Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments Second Quarter Review 2012-13.  The median projection for 2012-13 in the Reserve Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters has been lowered to 5.7% from 6.5% for growth, while that for average WPI inflation is revised upwards to 7.7% from 7.3%

Now today all eyes will be on RBI monitory policy review at 11AM, RBI has held its short-term lending (repo) rates unchanged at 8% since April 2012. I guess there’s no Rate Cut till inflation ease, yes possibility for CRR cut high and would be interesting to whether its 25 points or 50 points.

US stock exchanges may remain closed today, was closed y’day due to Hurricane Sandy, a storm. US Exchange had announced close for both floor and electronic trading on Monday and possibly beyond, They also announced that stock and option trading closed on Monday.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing much to say, market may open again on flat note or a bit negative, then will remain volatile as most of us know that there’s no Rate Cut from RBI, but still hopes with CRR. In short buying momentum will gain if RBI surprises else only after US Pres election as big investor may remain sideline or cautious due to Prez election.

BHEL disappointed y'day and tanked 6%. Today RBI monitory policy review decision at 11.00AM and tomorrow we have Fiscal Deficit Data & Infrastructure Output Data.

The INDIA VIX on NSE up 6% to end at 15.12 and F&O PCR is 0.89.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 29-Oct-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	21441	599.86	26030	720.48	393795	9763.11	-120.62
INDEX OPTIONS	313370	8832.11	270627	7659.88	1539395	43623.93	1172.23
STOCK FUTURES	43053	1183.29	44771	1214.06	1041321	27677.17	-30.77
STOCK OPTIONS	32725	907.79	34921	958.46	45473	1274.53	-50.66

FII data clearly shows that FII also not hopeful with RBI Nos. and that’s FII went short on all, they shorted Index Future, Stock Future and even Stock Options. We are still in 5640-5725 range and still we need to watch for breakout or breakdown. As told many times buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels while on downside we have 2 strong supports 5630 & 5585, breakout of these support will lead Nifty to fill gaps and can drag Nifty below 5500 Mark.

On long side Nifty 6000CE has highest OI of 43.78 Lac with fresh addition of 6.84 Lac, 5900CE has second highest OI of 42.94 Lacs with addition of 5.07 Lacs.

On short side Nifty 5600PE OI has highest OI of 45.47 Lacs with addition of 4.84 Lacs while 5700PE has second highest OI of 40.94 Lacs with addition of 5 Lacs.

One point of worry which can’t be ignored is once again in continuation of second day huge addition of 7.8 Lac in OI to 5400PE and now total OI stands at 41.03 & 5300PE 49.05.

Resistance comes to 5694 - 5722 – 5747 and Supports comes to 5641 – 5616 - 5587.

Opening again seems flat and under pressure.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Realty Sector –

Realty shown weakness y’day.

Steel Sector –

May remain weak.

Infra Sector –

This sector can surprise in future.

Power Sector –

Hopes are high after cabinet reshuffle.

Banks Sector –

Volatility is the only word to describe today’s move.

IT Sector –

Under pressure

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

ICICI 1150CE - @10 for TG 20+ SL 4

Omkar Chemicals – Bought @102 for TG 115 SL 83 (Booked Profit at 116, call closed)

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

Today’s MG Mantra –

Lucky guys can try their luck today else remain sideline till clear indication. Nifty also seems in overbought zone. Watch for breakout of either 5630 or 5745.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.