Morning Bells (19 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

People want to see you doing well but not better than them.

Market fell down around 75 points on Friday in last 45 minutes, it was just scheduled, first market shown some resilience and once again it turned worried around closing.

Global situation are supportive at the moment and one need to be careful with longs. The biggest worry with US fiscal cliff, though its not leading US towards recession but most of experts expect that it will slow its economy but make it strong by reducing Deficit.

News from Middle East is also a bit of worry, they engaged in fight and there were news of ground offensive in Gaza by Israel. This can lead to a war situation, driving CRUDE prices up.

Also International atomic regulator said that the nuclear projects of Iran are more than civilian purpose, this can also create some tension in near future, and this will also drive Crude volatility.

Coming on home ground - Industrial output continues to sluggish, inflation remains high, and the current account deficit has widened further. So far in November, FIIs have net bought shares worth Rs 3348 crore, compared to average monthly purchases of Rs 12,500 crore since July.

So FII data also shown that either investors are cautious and slowdown the foreign fund inflows which indicates that frontline shares are now either fairly valued or even expensive.

So Monday seems a bit down and then may remain under pressure, now only hopes on Parliament session, which is only hope but it also seems unpredictable. I personally feel market can remain in tight range in next 2-3 days and Thursday will decide further move. Better to avoid aggressive longs and do not enter in market purely on technical. First day of Parliament’s winter session will decide the mood of market, so till market may hold or can wait but if winter session’s first day start with same attitude as last one then surely market will have a sharp decline.

Middle East war won’t affect our market much but yes it will create some pressure in terms of Fiscal Cliff of India, we are major importers, so OMCs are short and this the single reason will be enough to put mkt under pressure.

Now market will look for winter session of parliament and is eying on RBI to cut in interest rate in Jan 13, there are high chances that RBI can cut interest rate in Jan. and to my personal view Dec. can be a disappointing months in view of RBI Monitory policy. 

The Winter Session begins on Nov 22 and the Congress leaders are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a smooth sailing. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is approaching various political parties for helping the passage of important economic bills.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now worry is that there was a band of support between 5580 and 5630 and that band of support broken down decisively on Friday. Now we can say a little hope is only with 5537 else there is nothing to hold the Nifty till 5450 - 5400. So, if parliament sessions start on weak cues or with dreadlock then it is quite possible that in coming day we may see a free fall because there is no technical support anywhere till 5450-5400. So do not try to buy and catch falling knife, step aside or remain short or with hedge strategy.

2 days should be watch out closely this week, first today i.e. Monday as today’s move decide till winter sessions i.e. either hold or fall and next first day of parliament winter session.

Remember next week we have another holiday on GuruNanak Jayanti on Wednesday 28^th.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4.44% and end at 16.22 and F&O PCR is 0.92.

Opening seems subdued & a bit under pressure and then I see Nifty will remain range bound till EU opening.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 16 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	37104	1026.44	64647	1752.26	338053	8207.35	-725.82
INDEX OPTIONS	521977	14596.59	467350	13107.92	1869440	52132.53	1488.67
STOCK FUTURES	58171	1608.50	49219	1330.79	1095512	29386.50	277.71
STOCK OPTIONS	66604	1820.26	70855	1940.40	99180	2671.15	-120.15

As per FII data on Thursday OI was decreased by 60,905 contracts and they had sold 48,617 contracts in Index Future. On Friday they sold 27543 contracts in Index future and once again OI decreased by 30715. So FII have booked profit on their shorts.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Told many times Nifty seems to developing a trading range 5500-5900, now seems upside can be shifted to 5800 or 5700, lets see in coming week. Profit booking seen in Nifty short options while 12.94 lacs share added to 5700CE with total OI of 81.21 Lacs. 5800CE has highest OI of 94.96 Lacs.

Resistance comes to 5590 - 5629 - 5679 and Supports comes to 5554 - 5537 – 5503 -5548.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5537, breakdown on closing basis or in decisive way can lead to 5448 -5400, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5679 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening seems subdued and under pressure. Nifty may remain range bound till EU opening.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Media Sector –

Digitization fuelled media sector, y’day we have witnessed good move in media stock, they will be on run for time being.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Dishman Pharma – Bought 98.7 TG short term booked profit at 108 SL 91, mid-term TG is 130 (Call was initiated by Venkata)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Intraday is best suitable or wait for EU cue is good. Don’t try your luck against market sentiment.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.