Morning Bells (22 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Haar aur Jeet apani-apani soch par depend karti he – Maan lo to HAAR aur than lo to JEET.

Ah… once again big experts changed their view about Nifty, its 3^rd time when they changed their views for this expiry, but you all know we never changed our view. Infact since last couple of days Nifty is acting as per our expectation and today’s sudden move was also part of our expectation and strategy. So don’t get excited and don’t get nervous all is going smooth and soon we will get best calls soon.

Once upon a time I was expert of expiry game, but due to some busyness or some fear made me to opt cautious approach for last expiry. But I think now time is over. So we are again in the range of 5537 – 5554 – 5630 - 5650. Meaning is simple shorts can be hold with SL of 5650, while selective longs can be hold with SL of 5537 on closing or decisive mode.

Still market is in selective buying mode i.e. investors are preferring buy in selective scrip. Now we are looking for parliament’s winter session and today one need to be extra cautious as market can move in either direction. The Congress leaders are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a smooth sailing. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is approaching various political parties for helping the passage of important economic bills.

Parliament’s winter session is going to start today, it’s a four-week session which is expiring on 20th December, so it’s a long session and likely to be subdued, only hopes for FDI in retail are high.

A threat by TMC Mamata Banerjee to bring a no-confidence motion against the Congress-led government at the Centre looms large. The important legislative agenda of winter session which includes raising FDI cap from 26 to 49 per cent, GST Bill, Banking Regulation Amendment Bill and Direct Taxes Code, Pension fund reforms, Land Acquisition bill among other reforms are dependent on this move by TMC.

So one need to be cautious for these 2 days, anything is possible, if Govt. fails to take action on announced reforms then market could slip below 5500 if it does not pan out according to expectations while any sign of action on bills (even 2-3 bills will be quite enough to boost the sentiment) will be cheered by market and we can see 5800 – 5850.

The FinMin has rejected the Shome Panel's recommendation to defer GAAR by 3 years. Instead Chidambaram is in favour of rolling out GAAR from April 2014 which meant Foreign Investors got another year of relief and I guess it will favour market in near term but long term outlook remain jittery.

On Global front – “India is a big part of my plans," US President Barack Obama said when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh congratulated him on his re-election.

Japan will give a fresh loan of about USD 2.26 billion rpt USD 2.26 billion for the second phase of Dedicated Freight Corridor and an infrastructure project in South India, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told his Indian counterpart y’day in Tokyo.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Outlook still not changed, so as suggested don’t excite by seeing Nifty above 5600. Now match is very much interesting because Nifty is just in middle from approach from both i.e. from Bulls & Bears. So today first Bear may give a try to drag Nifty below 5600 mark while Bulls are finding a bit tough to drive Nifty upside. Reason is also simple money stops coming into the market, so overall no positive triggers are seen for the market for next one week or so starting from tomorrow. One can expect mild weakness to come into the market.

Well once again market remains in tight range in first half today. At this point 5800 seem more difficult than to achieve 5400, so it would be interesting to see where we are heading. We are still in range of 5554 – 5630 and all are waiting for breakout/breakdown for further direction.

Better to avoid aggressive longs and do not enter in market purely on technical. Second half of Parliament’s winter session will decide the mood of market.

Remember next week we have another holiday on GuruNanak Jayanti on Wednesday 28^th.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2.2% and end at 15.46 and F&O PCR is 0.89.

The Rupee fell to 55.29-55.31/USD, its weakest since September 13.

Opening seems volatile and under pressure, may be opening could be mildly positive and then all of sudden Nifty can see pressure.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	38961	1053.43	41135	1150.43	335520	8275.77	-97.00
INDEX OPTIONS	495357	13831.08	489483	13681.19	1892277	53159.31	149.89
STOCK FUTURES	69229	1918.13	60941	1660.96	1116628	29827.14	257.17
STOCK OPTIONS	47425	1290.39	47650	1290.81	104317	2823.40	-0.41

FII sold 2174 contacts while OI increased by 13,258 contacts which shows FII have started buying in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Trend changing levels are 5554 & 5537, so if 5537 break down then chances are high to see 5450, while buying momentum or sustainability can be seen above 5630.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5537, breakdown on closing basis or in decisive way can lead to 5448 -5400, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5630 & 5679 and can lead to 5730.

Resistance comes to 5636 - 5657 - 5695 and Supports comes to 5577 - 5542 – 5518 -5448.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Media Sector –

Digitization fuelled media sector, Govt. has announced that now it will follow the trend for next 38 cities which will definitely benefit media companies.

Top picks are - Dish TV & Sun TV and second line picks Den & Hathway

Realty Sector & Infta –

Change in long term outlook - The real estate sector will continue to remain an attractive investment destination with the possibility of prices in residential areas appreciating by 91 to 145 per cent in select cities over the next five years, according to report prepared by Knight Frank.

Keep eye on DB Realty, Peninsula Land & Anant Raj Industries.

JP Associate –

For 2QFY2013, Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) reported a mixed set of numbers with subdued revenue performance but higher-than-expected numbers at EBITDAM and PAT level. So upmove can be seen in JPA.

OMC –

Israel & Gaza announced cease fire. Would be relief for OMCs. Keep eye on BPCL & Cain India.

Telecom Sector –

Telecom stocks are slowly creeping back into the game. These beaten-down stocks have gained significantly in the last month. BhartiAirtel gained most while Reliance infra increasing significantly.

McDowell-N –

British spirits company Diageo Plc has announced an open offer to acquire a 26% stake in Indian peer United Spirits for Rs. 1,440 per share, according to reports.

According to the offer document, the tendering period commences on 7 January 2013 and will run until 18 January 2013.

Hotels –

Indian Hotels has appointed Cyrus Minstry as Non-executive Chairman.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Today’s MG Mantra –

Its time to trade with Hedge strategy or keep Nifty SL as suggested.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.