Morning Bells (21 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Har Ek ki Suno, Har Ek se Sikho kyonki har koi sab kuchh nahi janta… Par har ek kuchh na kuchh zarura janta he.

Market was just on expected lines, Nifty remained range bound and under pressure. As already told next 2 days market will follow trend of Monday, today again bears tried to break 5554 but bull got success to defend the mark. So we are again in the range of 5537 – 5554 – 5630. Meaning is simple shorts can be hold with SL of 5630, while selective longs can be hold with SL of 5537 on closing or decisive mode.

Still market is in selective buying mode i.e. investors are preferring buy in selective scrip. We are not reactive much to global market, as told many times we are more on home ground. Now we are looking for parliament’s winter session and today one need to be extra cautious as market can move in either direction.

So FII data also shown that either investors are cautious and slowdown the foreign fund inflows which indicates that frontline shares are now either fairly valued or even expensive.

The Winter Session begins on Nov 22 and the Congress leaders are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a smooth sailing. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is approaching various political parties for helping the passage of important economic bills.

A threat by TMC Mamata Banerjee to bring a no-confidence motion against the Congress-led government at the Centre looms large. The important legislative agenda of winter session which includes raising FDI cap from 26 to 49 per cent, GST Bill, Banking Regulation Amendment Bill and Direct Taxes Code, Pension fund reforms, Land Acquisition bill among other reforms are dependent on this move by TMC.

On Global front – “India is a big part of my plans," US President Barack Obama said when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh congratulated him on his re-election.

Japan will give a fresh loan of about USD 2.26 billion rpt USD 2.26 billion for the second phase of Dedicated Freight Corridor and an infrastructure project in South India, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told his Indian counterpart y’day in Tokyo.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Well I personally feel market can once again remain in tight range and today EOD time or tomorrow will decide further move.

Now at this point 5800 seem more difficult than to achieve 5400, so it would be interesting to see where we are heading. We are still in range of 5554 – 5630 and all are waiting for breakout/breakdown for further direction.

Here I would like to warn you especially for today closing time, it could be highly volatile and it can break range, so traders should remain cautious around this time, better if you close your positions in FNO.

Better to avoid aggressive longs and do not enter in market purely on technical. First day of Parliament’s winter session will decide the mood of market, so till market may hold or can wait but if winter session’s first day start with same attitude as last one then surely market will have a sharp decline.

Remember next week we have another holiday on GuruNanak Jayanti on Wednesday 28^th.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 5.2% and end at 15.81 and F&O PCR is 0.89.

Opening seems mildly positive and then once again Nifty can remain in range; today bulls once again can give an attempt to break and close above 5600 mark.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	40686	1097.91	30104	822.01	322262	7824.89	275.90
INDEX OPTIONS	405688	11318.81	396700	11091.90	1881769	52449.73	226.91
STOCK FUTURES	65527	1777.67	57793	1506.86	1105410	29249.99	270.80
STOCK OPTIONS	53825	1481.12	52989	1457.63	104348	2797.87	23.49

FII bought 10,582 contacts and OI decreased by 9094 contacts which shows FII have booked profit in their shorts. Bears once again tried to break 5554 but bulls managed to closed above the physiological level, so if somehow bulls manage to protect this range then we can see good upmove in Nifty next week.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Trend changing levels are 5554 & 5537, so if 5537 break down then chances are high to see 5450, while buying momentum or sustainability can be seen above 5630.

Unwinding seen in OTM calls & puts which is giving sense that mkt entering in range till expiry.

Resistance comes to 5607 - 5643 - 5672 and Supports comes to 5542 - 5512 – 5476 -5448.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5537, breakdown on closing basis or in decisive way can lead to 5448 -5400, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5630 & 5679 and can lead to 5730.

Opening seems mildly positive and then once again Nifty can remain in range; today bulls once again can give an attempt to break and close above 5600 mark.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Media Sector –

Digitization fuelled media sector, Govt. has announced that now it will follow the trend for next 38 cities which will definitely benefit media companies.

Top picks are - Dish TV & Sun TV and second line picks Den & Hathway

Realty Sector –

Change in long term outlook - The real estate sector will continue to remain an attractive investment destination with the possibility of prices in residential areas appreciating by 91 to 145 per cent in select cities over the next five years, according to report prepared by Knight Frank.

Telecom Sector –

Telecom stocks are slowly creeping back into the game. These beaten-down stocks have gained significantly in the last month. BhartiAirtel gained most while Reliance infra increasing significantly.

McDowell-N –

British spirits company Diageo Plc has announced an open offer to acquire a 26% stake in Indian peer United Spirits for Rs. 1,440 per share, according to reports.

According to the offer document, the tendering period commences on 7 January 2013 and will run until 18 January 2013.

Hotels –

Indian Hotels has appointed Cyrus Minstry as Non-executive Chairman.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Today’s MG Mantra –

Its time to trade with Hedge strategy or keep Nifty SL as suggested.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.