Morning Bells (20 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Thought of the day - Blind eyes can see world in a better way than blind brains.

So market just reacted on expected lines, Nifty remain range bound and under pressure, even good positive EU opening failed to boost the sentiment. As already told Monday was seemed range bound and under pressure, also informed first day of week will be direction for Nifty till Wednesday, so here onward Nifty can remain under range of 5537 – 5554 – 5630. Meaning is simple till shorts can be hold (with profit booking in 50%) with SL of 5630, while selective longs can be hold with SL of 5537 on closing or decisive mode.

Since last week market is in selective buying mode i.e. investors are preferring buy in selective scrip. We are not reactive much to global market, as told many times we are more on home ground that was the reason when EU reacted to Obama’s second inning with around 10% fall our market reacted just 2%-3%, so its obvious why we will cheer their sentiment in that way.

Coming on home ground - Industrial output continues to sluggish, inflation remains high, and the current account deficit has widened further. So far in November, FIIs have net bought shares worth Rs 3348 crore, compared to average monthly purchases of Rs 12,500 crore since July.

So FII data also shown that either investors are cautious and slowdown the foreign fund inflows which indicates that frontline shares are now either fairly valued or even expensive.

The Winter Session begins on Nov 22 and the Congress leaders are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a smooth sailing. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is approaching various political parties for helping the passage of important economic bills.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

So no sign of relief seems for next 2 days, now only hopes on Parliament session which also seems unpredictable. I personally feel market can remain in tight range in next 2-3 days and Thursday will decide further move.

Here I would like to warn you especially for Wednesday closing time, it could be highly volatile and it can break range, so traders should remain cautious around this time, better if you close your positions in FNO.

Better to avoid aggressive longs and do not enter in market purely on technical. First day of Parliament’s winter session will decide the mood of market, so till market may hold or can wait but if winter session’s first day start with same attitude as last one then surely market will have a sharp decline.

Remember next week we have another holiday on GuruNanak Jayanti on Wednesday 28^th.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 2.8% and end at 16.68 and F&O PCR is 0.97.

Opening seems mildly positive and then once again Nifty can remain in range, today bulls can give an attempt to break 5600 mark.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	40845	1099.30	42012	1154.08	331356	8066.29	-54.78
INDEX OPTIONS	579683	16128.98	579980	16165.67	1883221	52487.70	-36.69
STOCK FUTURES	51428	1385.31	48864	1301.34	1100932	29414.58	83.97
STOCK OPTIONS	60633	1645.52	60733	1655.66	102104	2752.03	-10.14

As told FII data are not very exciting and fund inflow is decreasing day by day, today FII sold 1167 contracts and OI decreased by 6697.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nothing much to say about Nifty till Thursday, trend changing levels are 5554 & 5537, so if 5537 break down then chances are high to see 5450, while buying momentum or sustainability can be seen above 5630.

Unwinding seen in 5800CE, 5900CE and 6000CE which shows now bulls are losing hope for 6000. Still 5800CE has highest OI of 91.84 Lacs. While 8 lacs share added to 5400PE and has highest OI on short side of 71.76 Lacs.

Resistance comes to 5593 - 5615 - 5636 and Supports comes to 5549 - 5528 – 5506 -5448.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5537, breakdown on closing basis or in decisive way can lead to 5448 -5400, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5630 & 5679 and can lead to 5730.

Opening seems mildly positive and then once again Nifty can remain in range, today bulls can give an attempt to break 5600 mark.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Media Sector –

Digitization fuelled media sector, Govt. has announced that now it will follow the trend for next 38 cities which will definitely benefit media companies.

Top picks are - Dish TV & Sun TV and second line picks Den & Hathway

Realty Sector –

Realty is in demand for time being and stock went up reasonably, one need to book profit in this year and then need to wait for re-enter at lower levels. Meaning is simple – I see that this sector will see some profit booking soon as prices of realty stocks are fairly up but will see demand slump in coming months.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Today’s MG Mantra –

Its time to trade with Hedge strategy or keep Nifty SL as suggested.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.